Today, the Goodfellows speak with former fellow Tyler Goodspeed about his new book on the history of recessions. H.R. McMaster argues there is little to tolerate about the husk of an Iranian regime still clinging to power in Tehran, even if hostilities end soon. And scholars with Hoover Education release new focus group-generated research on what is on the mind of parents of children in underperforming schools across America.
Economy
If unexpected wars and oil shocks have been big features of recent history, so too are economic recessions—another downturn perhaps ahead in 2026. Tyler Goodspeed, a former Hoover Institution fellow and author of the forthcoming book, Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What To Do About It, joins GoodFellows regulars Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster for a tutorial on economic conditions and lessons past and present. After that: The three fellows discuss the latest in the Iran conflict including the feasibility of a peace agreement by week’s end as demanded by President Trump, the odds of land forces entering the equation in the near future, and possible economic hardship ahead should the fighting linger. Finally, in the “lightning round”: why the late Stanford biologist Paul Erlich was so amiss in predicting a doomed planet (not unlike climate alarmists) and H.R.’s favorite Chuck Norris jokes in honor of the recent passing of the famed Hollywood tough guy. Watch or listen to the episode here.
Iran
After so many years of brutalizing its own citizens, antagonizing the West and its Persian Gulf neighbors and fomenting instability across the Middle East, Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster collects the various reasons why the Islamic Republic may finally be out of gas in a post on his Substack. Charting the developments since the 1979 Revolution, his own time in the White House, October 7, the 2025 Israel-Iran war, and the current conflict, McMaster says everyone’s patience for the ayatollahs is wearing exceptionally thin. “It is hard to imagine President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Gulf leaders accepting terms for an end of hostilities that leaves in place a hostile regime that continues to threaten their citizens and their economies,” McMaster writes. Read more here.
News From Hoover
The Hoover Institution hosted its Winter Board of Overseers meeting in Washington, DC, from February 22–24. This year’s meeting brought together four senior cabinet officials—Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Education Linda McMahon, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett—for a series of candid conversations with Hoover scholars and supporters on the most pressing issues facing the United States. Led by Hoover Director Condoleezza Rice, the program featured wide-ranging discussions on national security, economic policy, healthcare, global competition, and emerging technologies, including a deep dive into the Economic and Security Commons initiative—new research examining the foundations that have historically sustained global peace and prosperity. Read more here.
Revitalizing American Institutions
Civic Profile holds up a mirror to Americans curious about their civic identities. This new online tool, explain Hoover Senior Fellows Brandice Canes-Wrone and Chester E. Finn, Jr., was developed to help participants understand their beliefs about the core values of American life and, even more usefully, see how their attitudes compare with the nation as a whole or smaller groups. The goal of Civic Profile, they write, is to strengthen democracy: to preserve and restore the participatory decision making that was essential to the American founders. Users of Civic Profile also can group themselves into a cohort—a family, a workplace, a classroom—to better grasp the views of those around them. In a time of much-lamented civic decline, this versatile tool will help Americans rediscover a common language of civic identity and participation. Read more here.
Reforming K–12 Education
In Defining Ideas, the authors of the new Unheard Voices Project—Distinguished Research Fellow Margaret (Macke) Raymond and social scientist Marzena Sasnal—write about their work to highlight the concerns of parents in at-risk school districts and discover the barriers to change. They held focus group-style discussions in nine communities with persistently underperforming schools. Their goal was to map the boundaries of inclusion and probe the perspectives of those whose lives are affected by the quality of schools but who have no voice. Their report presents the substance of those community conversations and offers suggestions for improving the critical democratic institution of public schools. Read more here.
Immigration
Are H-1B workers really hired just so companies can pay them less, resulting in displaced American workers? Hoover Senior Fellow, Paola Sapienza, and Institute for Progress’ Distinguished Immigration Counsel, Amy Nice, examine recently obtained data and explain why the common claim—that immigrants are hired as a source of cheap labor—doesn't hold up under scrutiny. In fact, the opposite may be true. Watch the video here.
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