Long-Run Political Consequences of COVID-Era School Closures
with David Figlio, visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Gordon Fyfe Professor of Economics and Education at the University of Rochester, and Michael Hartney, the Bruni Family Fellow at the Hoover Institution and associate professor of political science at Boston College
April 15, 2026, from 12:30 to 1:45 pm PT.
Research Team: Economic Policy Working Group
Co-chairs: John Cochrane, Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution Valerie Ramey, Thomas Sowell Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
SUMMARY
We study the long-run political consequences of Covid-era school closures in the United States. Combining precinct-level election results from 2016–2024 with multiple measures of school “openness” derived from policy data and cellphone mobility, we examine how variation in school closures relates to changes in voting behavior across local electorates. Leveraging neighboringdistrict and nearby private school comparisons, we document systematic relationships between pandemic-era schooling experiences and subsequent electoral outcomes. We also explore potential mechanisms and heterogeneity across demographic, geographic, and institutional contexts.
