- Security & Defense
- US Defense
- Determining America's Role in the World
The current US national security structure, designed for the Cold War era, is ill-suited for today's strategic competition era. The modern landscape is characterized by simultaneous rivalry with China and Russia—a less stable tripolar nuclear state—a reality that is not well addressed by the United States’ twentieth-century approach to geopolitics. This essay addresses the radical changes needed in defense policies, institutions, and expenditures to confront this challenge.
Key Takeaways
- China's rapid nuclear expansion (from 600 to potentially 1,500 warheads), alongside US and Russian arsenals, is creating a tripolar nuclear environment, fundamentally changing deterrence dynamics and the credibility of America's nuclear umbrella for allies.
- National security now requires integrating defense with economic competitiveness, particularly in critical technologies (AI, quantum computing, semiconductors) and supply chains, which are primarily developed by the commercial sector.
- The current National Security Council structure is inadequate for this new era and requires fundamental reorganization, including adding a tier of analysts with commercial expertise who can evaluate options affecting both national security and economic prosperity.
- The United States must reassess whether its military industrial base can provide sufficient weapons during protracted conflicts while maintaining force readiness against multiple adversarial nuclear powers.
- This geopolitical transition is not a policy choice but rather a new reality demanding immediate changes to defense policies, institutions, and budgets to protect US and allied interests.
Managing National Security in a Time of Geopolitical Transition by Hoover Institution
Cite this report:
John Deutch and David Fedor, “Managing National Security in a Time of Geopolitical Transition,” Global Policy and Strategy Initiative, Hoover Institution, May 2026.
