PALO ALTO, California—In the midst of an apparent national Democratic trend, one of the few bright spots for Republicans is California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who appears headed for a solid victory in his quest for reelection.

 

According to a survey conducted October 19-27 for the Hoover Institution by Polimetrix, Schwarzenegger leads his Democratic opponent, California State Treasurer Phil Angelides 50% to 40% with 10% undecided or supporting third party candidates.

 

In most other races, Democratic candidates hold comfortable margins over their Republican opponents. U.S. Senator Diane Feinstein leads Republican State Senator Richard Mountjoy 57% to 39% in her bid for reelection. Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi leads State Senator Tom McClintock 51% to 45% in the race for Lieutenant Governor. Current Attorney General Bill Lockyer is headed for an easy victory in the contest for State Treasurer as is Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown who is running for Attorney General. Both hold double-digit leads over their Republican opponents.

 

The only Republican other than Schwarzenegger likely to win a statewide contest is Steve Poizner. Poizner leads Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante 55% to 36% in the race for Insurance Commissioner.

 

 

 

Just a year ago, Schwarzenegger suffered a serious setback when all four propositions that he backed in the 2005 Special Election were defeated. Schwarzenegger’s popularity has recovered to 47%. Respondents were re–polled on the 2005 initiatives and two of the four defeated propositions are now supported by substantial majorities. 63% of the likely voters are in favor of prohibiting union dues being used for political contributions and 58% say that the probationary period for public school teachers should be increased. On the other hand, the Governor’s spending limitation and redistricting initiatives were supported by only 34% and 35%, respectively, of the likely voters.

 

Only one or two propositions on the 2006 ballot appear likely to pass. Proposition 90 (eminent domain restrictions) is well ahead, favored by 58% and opposed by 28%. Propositions 87 (oil company tax) narrowly leads 49% to 44%, while support and opposition for Proposition 86 (cigarette tax) are about the same. Propositions 85 (parental notification of abortions), 88 (education parcel tax), and 89 (public financing for campaigns) are all trailing by large margins.

 

Proposition	Subject	For	Against	Undecided
85	Parental Notification	42%	51%	7%
86	Cigarette Tax	49%	47%	4%
87	Oil Company Tax	49%	44%	7%
88	Education Parcel Tax	31%	60%	9%
89	Public Financing	35%	52%	13%
90	Eminent Domain	58%	28%	14%

 

The survey was designed by Stanford Political Science Professors and Hoover Senior Fellows David Brady, Morris Fiorina, and Douglas Rivers. The survey was conducted between October 19 and 27, 2006, by Polimetrix, Inc. Participating in the survey were 877 likely voters belonging to the PollingPoint Internet panel. Panelists were selected to match a random sample drawn from the California voter list by age, gender, race, party registration, and residence. The margin of error for the survey estimates is approximately plus or minus 3.5 percent. The survey estimates are also subject to potential non-sampling errors due to the sample selection technique, measurement error, and other non-sampling errors.

 

This methodology was used in the 2005 California Special Election and was one of only two public polls to correctly forecast the outcome of all major propositions correctly.

 

 

Polimetrix is a non-partisan polling organization based in Palo Alto founded by Stanford Political Science Professor Douglas Rivers. Polimetrix has developed a unique sample selection methodology that combines a large Internet panel with voter and consumer databases to create representative voter samples. The company is backed by Alloy Ventures, a leading early-stage venture capital investor.

 

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