John B. Taylor

George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics
Awards and Honors:
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Econometric Society (elected fellow)
Economics Distinguished Faculty Teaching Award
(2015)
Biography: 

John B. Taylor is the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University. He chairs the Hoover Working Group on Economic Policy and is director of Stanford’s Introductory Economics Center.

Taylor's fields of expertise are monetary policy, fiscal policy, and international economics. His book Getting Off Track was one of the first on the financial crisis; his latest book, First Principles, for which he received the 2012 Hayek Prize, develops an economic plan to restore America’s prosperity.

Taylor served as senior economist on President Ford's and President Carter’s Council of Economic Advisers, as a member of President George H. W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, and as a senior economic adviser to Bob Dole’s presidential campaign, to George W. Bush’s presidential campaign in 2000, and to John McCain’s presidential campaign. He was a member of the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Economic Advisers from 1995 to 2001. From 2001 to 2005, Taylor served as undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs where he was responsible for currency markets, international development, for oversight of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and for coordinating policy with the G-7 and G-20.

Taylor received the Bradley Prize from the Bradley Foundation and the Adam Smith Award as well as the Adolph G. Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics. He was awarded the Alexander Hamilton Award for his overall leadership at the US Treasury, the Treasury Distinguished Service Award for designing and implementing the currency reforms in Iraq, and the Medal of the Republic of Uruguay for his work in resolving the 2002 financial crisis. At Stanford he was awarded the George P. Shultz Distinguished Public Service Award, as well as the Hoagland Prize and the Rhodes Prize for excellence in undergraduate teaching. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Econometric Society; he formerly served as vice president of the American Economic Association.

Taylor received the 2016 Adam Smith Award from the Association of Private Enterprise Education and the 2015 Truman Medal for Economic Policy for extraordinary contribution to the formation and conduct of economic policy.

Taylor formerly held positions as professor of economics at Princeton University and Columbia University. Taylor received a BA in economics summa cum laude from Princeton University in 1968 and a PhD in economics from Stanford University in 1973.

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Analysis and Commentary

Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away From The Lower Bound?

by Lilia Maliar, John B. Taylorvia The National Bureau Of Economic Research
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

During the recent economic crisis, when nominal interest rates were at their effective lower bounds, central banks used forward guidance announcements about future policy rates to conduct their monetary policy. Many policymakers believe that forward guidance will remain in use after the end of the crisis; however, there is uncertainty about its effectiveness. 

Featured

Africa Meeting Of Econometricians: History, Revival And Ways Forward

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Friday, July 12, 2019

I just spent a wonderful few days at the 2019 Africa Meeting of the Econometric Society held in Rabat, Morocco with the central bank, the Bank Al-Maghrib, providing an excellent venue. Congratulations to the Bank Al Maghrib for its 60th anniversary year and also to the Econometric Society for its upcoming 90th anniversary in 2020.

In the News

The Federal Reserve Makes A Case For Lowering Rates Back To Zero

quoting John B. Taylorvia Barron's
Wednesday, July 10, 2019

The Federal Reserve began raising the level of short-term interest rates at the end of 2015. The central bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report, published on Friday in advance of Chairman Jerome Powell’s semiannual testimony to Congress this week, suggests this may have been a mistake. According to the report, the proper level of short-term interest rates today could be as low as 0%.

Featured

A Decade Of July 4th Debt Explosions: Are They Getting Less Spectacular?

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Thursday, July 4, 2019

Starting a decade ago, I’ve charted on Independence Day the most recent long-term projection of the federal debt by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Lessons From The Hoover Policy Boot CampFeatured

Understanding Monetary Policy With John B. Taylor

by John B. Taylorvia PolicyEd
Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Monetary policy plays a critical role in the economy. Central banks use monetary policy to promote robust economic growth and to stabilize the economy when growth is uneven. The independence of central banks allows them to make difficult decisions in the face of political pressure. Understanding monetary policy can help us avoid future recessions or financial crises.

Featured

Recent Decisions And Rules Of The Fed

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Last week, after attending monetary policy conferences at Stanford, Chicago and Frankfurt, I put forth evidence in EconomicsOne.com of a revival of research on monetary policy rules for the instruments, whether at the conferences, in research papers, or in Fed publications. I offered possible explanations for the revival, also with evidence, including revealed preference by policymakers, the need to deal with the effective lower bound, disappointments with past departures from rules, threats of legislation, and concerns about political pressure.

Analysis and Commentary

Let’s Twist Again With Online Econ 1

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Sunday, June 23, 2019

This summer we will be offering Stanford’s Principles of Economics course online. As explained in this Wall Street Journal article, “A Twist in Online Learning at Stanford,” the twist again is that we’ll offer it both (1) to the general public and (2) for credit to matriculated Stanford students, incoming freshman, and visiting students in the Stanford Summer School.

Featured

A Revival Of Research On Monetary Policy Rules For The Instruments

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Thursday, June 20, 2019

Recently I had the opportunity to participate in several conferences on monetary policy: the annual Hoover monetary policy conference at Stanford in May, the 2019 Fed Review conference in Chicago in June, and the Macro Model Comparison Conference in Frankfurt also in June. There are many takeaways, but one was very evident. I will call it a “Revival of Research on Monetary Policy Rules for the Instruments.”

In the News

Taylor’s Rule: Too High, Too Low – Where Should Interest Rates Go?

interview with John B. Taylorvia Biz News
Thursday, June 6, 2019

Taylor’s Rule is an interest rate forecasting model invented by John Taylor in the early 90s. And according to Investopedia “it’s a proposed guideline for how central banks should alter interest rates in response to changes in economic conditions.” In South Africa, the Reserve Bank’s mandate is very topical at present, which in turn sets up a discussion around interest rates. SARB’s current mandate is tailored around a targeted inflation band of 3-6%, with the repo rate currently at 6.75%. 

Featured

John Taylor: Not All Professors Are Socialists

interview with John B. Taylorvia Kibbe on Liberty
Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Hoover Institution fellow John Taylor discusses how we can educate young people and reclaim words like “liberalism,” “democracy,” and “capitalism.” Taylor also talks about influencers like Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, Adam Smith, and the mysterious Mont Pelerin Society.

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