John B. Taylor

George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics
Awards and Honors:
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
Econometric Society (elected fellow)
Economics Distinguished Faculty Teaching Award
(2015)
Biography: 

John B. Taylor is the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University. He chairs the Hoover Working Group on Economic Policy and is director of Stanford’s Introductory Economics Center.

Taylor's fields of expertise are monetary policy, fiscal policy, and international economics. His book Getting Off Track was one of the first on the financial crisis; his latest book, First Principles, for which he received the 2012 Hayek Prize, develops an economic plan to restore America’s prosperity.

Taylor served as senior economist on President Ford's and President Carter’s Council of Economic Advisers, as a member of President George H. W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, and as a senior economic adviser to Bob Dole’s presidential campaign, to George W. Bush’s presidential campaign in 2000, and to John McCain’s presidential campaign. He was a member of the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Economic Advisers from 1995 to 2001. From 2001 to 2005, Taylor served as undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs where he was responsible for currency markets, international development, for oversight of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and for coordinating policy with the G-7 and G-20.

Taylor received the Bradley Prize from the Bradley Foundation and the Adam Smith Award as well as the Adolph G. Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics. He was awarded the Alexander Hamilton Award for his overall leadership at the US Treasury, the Treasury Distinguished Service Award for designing and implementing the currency reforms in Iraq, and the Medal of the Republic of Uruguay for his work in resolving the 2002 financial crisis. At Stanford he was awarded the George P. Shultz Distinguished Public Service Award, as well as the Hoagland Prize and the Rhodes Prize for excellence in undergraduate teaching. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Econometric Society; he formerly served as vice president of the American Economic Association.

Taylor received the 2016 Adam Smith Award from the Association of Private Enterprise Education and the 2015 Truman Medal for Economic Policy for extraordinary contribution to the formation and conduct of economic policy.

Taylor formerly held positions as professor of economics at Princeton University and Columbia University. Taylor received a BA in economics summa cum laude from Princeton University in 1968 and a PhD in economics from Stanford University in 1973.

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Recent Commentary

Analysis and Commentary

Unique Cooperative Research Effort

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Wednesday, January 17, 2018

This week marks the 20-year anniversary of a “notable conference” on monetary policy as Ed Nelson, who reminded me, puts it. The conference took place at the Cheeca Lodge in the Florida Keys on January 15-17, 1998, and it resulted in the book Monetary Policy Rules published by the University of Chicago Press for the NBER.

Featured

The Fed’s Inflation Target And Policy Rules

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Tuesday, January 9, 2018

The Brookings Institution held an interesting conference yesterday organized by David Wessel on “Should the Fed Stick with the 2 Percent Inflation Target or Rethink It?” Olivier Blanchard and Larry Summers argued, as they have elsewhere, that the Fed should increase its inflation target—say from 2% to 4%. Others—such as John Williams—argued that the Fed should change the target in some other way such as by focusing on the price level. 

Analysis and Commentary

Happy New Decade!

by John B. Taylormentioning Michael J. Boskin, John H. Cochrane , John F. Cogan, Joshua D. Rauh, Kenneth E. Scott, George P. Shultz, Hoover Institutionvia Economics One
Sunday, December 31, 2017

The Great Recession began exactly one decade ago this month, as later determined by the NBER business cycle dating committee chaired by my colleague, Bob Hall. There is still a great debate about the causes of the Great Recession, its deepness, its length, and the Not-So-Great Recovery that followed. 

Featured

Rules Versus Discretion: Assessing The Debate Over The Conduct Of Monetary Policy

by John B. Taylorvia The National Bureau Of Economic Research
Wednesday, December 27, 2017

This paper reviews the state of the debate over rules versus discretion in monetary policy, focusing on the role of economic research in this debate. It shows that proposals for policy rules are largely based on empirical research using economic models. The models demonstrate the advantages of a systematic approach to monetary policy, though proposed rules have changed and generally improved over time. 

Analysis and Commentary

What’s Past Is Prologue. Study The Past

by John B. Taylormentioning John F. Coganvia Economics One
Monday, December 18, 2017

Each year the Wall Street Journal asks friends for their favorite books of the year. Two years ago I chose Thomas Sowell’s history of income distribution in Wealth, Poverty, and Politics and Brian Kilmeade’s history on Thomas Jefferson and the Tripoli Pirates. Last year I chose The Man Who Knew, Sebastian Mallaby’s biography of Alan Greenspan, and War by Other Means by Bob Blackwill and Jennifer Harris. This year I chose two amazingly relevant books on U.S. economic history: John Cogan’s The High Cost of Good Intentions: A History of U.S. Federal Entitlement Programs and Doug Irwin’s Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy.

Featured

Economists Respond To Summers, Furman Over Mnuchin Letter

by Robert J. Barro, Michael J. Boskin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, R. Glenn Hubbard, Lawrence B. Lindsey, Harvey S. Rosen, George P. Shultz, John B. Taylorvia The Washington Post
Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Dear Lawrence Summers and Jason Furman, We read with interest your Dear Colleague letter in The Washington Post in response to ours in the Wall Street Journal. You ask if we have considered several points you make. The answer is yes — we have considered each before coming to our conclusion.

Featured

How Tax Reform Will Lift The Economy

by Michael J. Boskin, John F. Cogan, George P. Shultz, John B. Taylorvia The Wall Street Journal
Sunday, November 26, 2017

 [Subscription required] We believe the Republican bills could boost GDP 3% to 4% long term by reducing the cost of capital.

Analysis and Commentary

A Policy Rule Presented At A Conference 25 Years Ago Today

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Ed Nelson sent me a nice note today saying that the past two days (November 20-21) mark “the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Carnegie-Rochester Conference at which you laid out your rule.” I had forgotten about the specific dates, but his note reminds me how much has changed in those 25 years.

Analysis and Commentary

Remarks At The Panel “Toward A Rules-Based International Monetary System”

by John B. Taylorvia Cato Institute
Thursday, November 16, 2017

It is a pleasure to be on this panel on moving toward a more rules-based international monetary system. Over the past few years I have been making the case for such a system. In fact I made the case over 30 years ago in Taylor (1985), and the ideas go back over 30 years before that to Milton Friedman (1953). However, the case for such a system is now much stronger because the monetary system drifted away from a rules-based approach in the past dozen years and, as Paul Volcker (2014) reminds us, the absence of a rules-based monetary system “has not been a great success.”

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Time to Get Growing

by John F. Cogan, R. Glenn Hubbard, John B. Taylor, Kevin Warshvia Hoover Digest
Monday, October 23, 2017

Weak economic performance is not inevitable. 

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