John H. Cochrane

Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow
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Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Analysis and Commentary

New Papers

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Saturday, July 20, 2019

I've been remiss about blogging lately while I finished two new papers, "The Fiscal Roots of Inflation," and "The Value of Government Debt." I'm posting here for those who might be interested, and I appreciate comments.

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All That Glitters Is Not Gold

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Thursday, July 18, 2019

I wrote a Wall Street Journal Oped on the gold standard, partly in response to last week's Oped by James Grant (whose "PhD standard" is a great quip) and Greg Yp's excellent column on Judy Shelton and gold.

Analysis and Commentary

All That Glitters Is Not Gold

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Thursday, July 18, 2019

I wrote a Wall Street Journal Oped on the gold standard, partly in response to last week's Oped by James Grant (whose "PhD standard" is a great quip) and Greg Yp's excellent column on Judy Shelton and gold.

Featured

Forget The Gold Standard And Make The Dollar Stable Again

by John H. Cochranevia The Wall Street Journal
Wednesday, July 17, 2019

[Subscription Required] Precious metals no longer make sense as a store of value. Instead, peg money to goods and services.

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The Phillips Curve Is Still Dead

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Sunday, June 30, 2019

Greg Mankiw posted a clever graph a month ago, which he titled "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well."

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The Rent Is Too Damn High

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Sunday, June 23, 2019

NPR covered the Democratic candidates' plans to address housing issues: [Julian] Castro would provide housing vouchers to all families who need help. Right now, only 1 in 4 families eligible for housing assistance gets it. He would also increase government spending on new affordable housing by tens of billions of dollars a year and provide a refundable tax credit to the millions of low- and moderate-income renters who have to spend more than 30% of their incomes on housing.

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Real Estate Ups And Downs

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Sunday, June 16, 2019

In a delightfully YIMBY "Americans Need More Neighbors" the New York times gets it almost all right. Housing is one area of American life where government really is the problem. The United States is suffering from an acute shortage of affordable places to live, particularly in the urban areas where economic opportunity increasingly is concentrated. And perhaps the most important reason is that local governments are preventing construction.

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In the News

John Cochrane On Currency Manipulation In Germany And Italy

quoting John H. Cochranevia Econlib
Sunday, June 9, 2019

Several people directed me to a John Cochrane post that has an amusing critique of the US government’s recent attempt to label Germany and Italy as “currency manipulators”. The most obvious objection raised by Cochrane is that neither Germany nor Italy has a national currency to manipulate—both use the euro.

Analysis and Commentary

Futures Forecasts

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Friday, June 7, 2019
Torsten Slok at DB updates this lovely graph on occasion. Here's what it means. Fed fund futures are essentially bets on where the Federal funds rate will be at various points in the future. Thus, you can read from the dashed lines the market's guess about where the federal funds rate will go -- assuming that the bets are priced to have an even chance of winning or losing.
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Institutionalized Nonsense

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Thursday, June 6, 2019

When, last week, the Treasury issued its currency manipulation report, I thought it was a joke. Treasury put Germany and Italy on its "monitoring list" of countries suspected of "currency manipulation."

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Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .