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The Fiscal Policy Initiative researches potential solutions to the nation’s fiscal policy challenges, providing a road map that promotes future economic growth and opportunity. Led by Senior Fellow Joshua D. Rauh, the initiative launched in 2025 with a conference exploring the economic consequences of US fiscal policy trends, including extensive discussions of budget projections, debt sustainability, international responses to debt crises, the effectiveness of government spending and tax policy, and the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies.

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Hoover Institution Launches Fiscal Policy Initiative, Highlighting Urgent Need For Sustainable Fiscal Policy
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Hoover Institution Launches Fiscal Policy Initiative, Highlighting Urgent Need For Sustainable Fiscal Policy

US Tax Filing Deadline Prompts Hoover to Examine Urgency of Fiscal Policy

Apr 16, 2025
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The Economic Consequences of US Fiscal Policy Trends Conference
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The Economic Consequences of US Fiscal Policy Trends Conference

The Hoover Institution's Fiscal Policy Initiative hosted a conference on the Economic Consequences of US Fiscal Policy Trends on March 10 and 11, 2025. 

Apr 16, 2025
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Coin

What Are The Most Pressing Fiscal Issues Facing America?

Leading economists and budget experts from the Hoover Institution’s Fiscal Policy Initiative warn that America faces a fiscal crisis with unsustainable deficits, impending entitlement insolvency, and rising interest payments that emphasize the urgent need for a sustainable fiscal roadmap.

April 16, 2025
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Washington

What Is The Tipping Point For Federal Borrowing?

America is approaching dangerous fiscal tipping points where debt grows faster than economic growth, potentially triggering market panic and deep recession, with the situation particularly concerning because the United States’ unprecedented debt levels threaten its position as the global financial system’s "safe asset provider."

April 16, 2025
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National Debt

What Would A US Sovereign Debt Crisis Look Like?

A U.S. debt crisis would trigger catastrophic inflation and interest rate spikes, causing investors to flee U.S. Treasuries and sending the economy into a deeper tailspin than the 2008 crisis, with permanent negative effects on growth that would impact many generations to come.

April 16, 2025
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Tax

Which Taxes And Spending Programs Should Be Reformed?

Consumption taxes are the most efficient approach to America’s fiscal challenges because they don’t discourage productive activities, but political resistance makes inflation the most likely outcome of continued deficits, functioning as a hidden tax that will ultimately burden Americans.

April 16, 2025
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Workforce

How Does Fiscal Policy Affect The Workforce?

Fiscal policies like safety net programs and tax structures significantly impact labor force participation, with carefully designed reforms like the 1996 welfare reform which prove that properly aligned incentives can increase employment even as benefits are removed.

April 16, 2025
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Hands

Can We Reduce Spending While Still Helping Low-Income Families?

The 1996 welfare reform demonstrated that well-designed benefit programs with work requirements and time limits can both reduce government spending and improve outcomes for families, proving more effective than unconditional cash transfers at promoting independence and long-term mobility.

April 16, 2025
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Monetary Policy

How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Monetary Policy?

The $5 trillion in COVID-era spending demonstrated how coordinated fiscal and monetary policies can trigger inflation, while America’s large debt now severely constrains the Federal Reserve’s ability to fight future inflation by raising interest rates without creating further fiscal pressures.

April 16, 2025
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Issues

The Fiscal Policy Initiative (FPI) conducts research on the most pressing areas of federal fiscal policy. Drawing on economic scholarship and policy expertise, the Initiative provides credible, actionable analysis to inform lawmakers and the public. Its work covers the following issues:

Tax Icon

Tax Policy: FPI examines how federal tax policy affects labor supply, investment, productivity, and long-term economic growth. Research includes the fiscal and economic effects of potential tax reforms, the structure and impact of international taxation, and potential behavioral responses of workers, businesses, and investors from tax policy changes.

Entitlement Reform Icon

Entitlement Reform: FPI evaluates the long-term sustainability and economic effects of major federal entitlement programs, including Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, as well as low-income support programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). Research explores how best to adjust these programs to improve their incentives and long-run fiscal sustainability.

Budget Icon

Budget Process Reform: FPI studies the federal budget process and proposals to enhance transparency and enforce fiscal discipline. Areas of focus include reforms to Congressional budget procedures, improvements to budgetary scoring methodologies, and the design of effective fiscal rules.

Federal Risk Icon

Federal Borrowing and Macroeconomic Risk: FPI analyzes the consequences of rising federal borrowing for interest rates, inflation, and private investment. Research also examines the risks that excessive debt poses to long-term economic growth and stability.

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