John H. Cochrane

Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow
Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Interviews

John Cochrane: Whither The Fed

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Friday, June 11, 2021

Hoover Institution fellow John Cochrane talks about inflation and the future of the Fed.

Featured

The End Of "The End Of Inflation"

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Thursday, June 10, 2021

This spring's spurt of inflation clearly already means one thing: The end of "the end of inflation." For 25 years inflation has seemed stuck on a downward trend. Those of us who worry about it seemed like end-of-the-world sign-holders that couldn't leave the 1970s behind. It's hard to buck the trend. A famous economist advised me to give up studying inflation -- inflation is 2%, he said, that's all you need to know. Apparently a new constant of nature.

Analysis and Commentary

Why Won't Banks Take Your Money?

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Thursday, June 10, 2021

Why would bankers not want to take any amount of deposits, park them in reserves at the Fed or short term Treasury bills, charge fees and a slight interest spread, and sign up for an early tee-time at the local golf club? Sure "net interest margin" or other metrics might not look good, but money is money and more money is more money.

Featured

Three Inflations

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Thursday, June 10, 2021

The latest inflation numbers are out, up 0.64% from April to May (7.7% annualized), on top of 0.77% (9.2% annualized) from March to April. 

Analysis and Commentary

Inflation Options

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, June 9, 2021

From the lovely Minneapolis Fed website that computes probabilities from option prices.  

Analysis and Commentary

What About Japan?

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Sunday, June 6, 2021

What about Japan? It's a question I often hear from advocates of fiscal expansion. Japan has huge debts and no crisis or inflation (so far). Doesn't that prove the US can borrow a ton more money painlessly?

Analysis and Commentary

Proxies

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Thursday, June 3, 2021

A correspondent asked for comment on the new ESG trend among asset managers. For example, BlackRock, and the recent Exxon upheaval with two new green directors (here, but cautionary WSJ coverage here, pointing out how empty the whole Exxon affair really is).  I'm sad to see even Vanguard (which has a lot of my money) going along on this...trend. 

Analysis and Commentary

Brazilian Inflation

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Sunday, May 30, 2021

This marvelous plot comes from an interesting article, The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016 by Joao Ayres, Marcio Garcia, Diogo A. Guillén, and Patrick J. Kehoe. The article is part of the Becker-Friedman Institute Project, complete with a big and now easily available data collection effort, and forthcoming book.

Analysis and Commentary

NBER Monetary Economics Is Up To Date

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Friday, May 28, 2021

I just got the program for the upcoming NBER summer institute monetary economics conference program.  Who says academics aren't up to the minute on policy issues? This will be interesting.  

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GoodFellows: Glenn Loury: “A Man Of The West”

featuring John H. Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, Glenn Loury, H. R. McMaster, Bill Whalenvia Fellow Talks
Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Does elite thinking about the Black experience in America, as expressed via the teaching of critical race theory and the 1619 Project, benefit the descendants of slavery? Glenn Loury, a Hoover Institution distinguished visiting fellow and Brown University economist who writes frequently on racial inequality, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, H. R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss the historical and economic arcs of race in America.

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Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .