John H. Cochrane

Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow
Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

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A Return To Normalcy?

featuring John H. Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H. R. McMaster, Bill Whalenvia GoodFellows: Conversations From The Hoover Institution
Wednesday, April 15, 2020

The question on everyone’s mind: when will society revert to its pre-coronavirus existence, and is such a restoration remotely possible? Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H. R. McMaster reflect on the various factors—economic policies, governments restoring civil liberties, nations working in tandem, the search for a COVID-19 vaccine—that will lead to the “new normal.”

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A Happy Thought On Super-Spreaders

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, April 14, 2020

From one of my super-smart colleagues.The key is to get R0, the average number each infected person gives it to, below one. If that is done, the virus dies out.R0 has a fat tail. Almost all spreading is done by a few super spreading people in super spreading events and activities. 

Analysis and Commentary

Financial Pandemic

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, April 14, 2020

The headlines are on the disease, the shutdown, and the hoped-for safe reopening. It's time to pay some attention to the financial side of the current situation, and the Federal Reserve's immense reaction to it.

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How Soon Does It End?

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Monday, April 13, 2020

How soon does it end? This is a big question which models can help us with.

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V, U Or L? Three Views

by John H. Cochrane cited Steven J. Davisvia The Grumpy Economist
Monday, April 13, 2020

Will the recovery be V shaped, U shaped or L shaped? The 1918 influenza stood in most economists' memories as the paradigm -- a short, small V shaped slowdown, despite massive mortality. But 1918 was different. People and public policy went about their business ignoring the death toll to a large extent.

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SNAFU

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Monday, April 13, 2020

We should not be shutting down the economy. Where we are is a sign of a great loss of bureaucratic competence, of state capacity. The old joke that the federal government is an immense insurance company with an army has never been so true.

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The Economy

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Monday, April 13, 2020

V shape L shape or U shape? How far are we from financial collapse?17 million people have filed for unemployment. In the first three weeks of the shutdown alone! The current rate 6 million per week. This is an astonishing number. The US labor force is about 165 million. One in 10 are out of a job in three weeks. 

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Social Distance Vs Economic Distance

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Monday, April 13, 2020

Social distance need not mean economic distance. This is an attempt to put advice to policy maker into one simple sentence. They have shut down the economy telling us not to go to work or businesses to open, except those deemed "essential" which are going on much as before, often with a surprising lack of attention to virus spreading.

Interviews

John Cochrane: The Economics Of Lockdowns

interview with John H. Cochranevia CATO
Thursday, April 9, 2020

Hoover Institution fellow John Cochrane discusses the economic costs of lock-downs as well as less costly alternatives.

The Grumpy Economist
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Thinking Through Phase II

interview with John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist | A Podcast with John H. Cochrane
Wednesday, April 8, 2020

What it will take to begin reopening the American economy.

Pages

Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .