John H. Cochrane

Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow
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Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Analysis and Commentary

Canadian Debt

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Friday, December 7, 2018
Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra and Adrian Walton at the Bank of Canada have issued a thoughtful and crisply written proposal for restructuring Canadian government debt, titled Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management.
Papers And Presentations

10 years later, any safer?

by John H. Cochranevia Revisiting the 2008 Financial Crisis
Friday, December 7, 2018

It has been 10 years since the financial crisis of 2008. Is the financial system safer?

Though officials, policy analysts and economists don’t agree on much, they broadly agree that the large banks are somewhat safer than they were in 2008. And the primary reason is is simple: more capital.

Featured

Brexit And Democracy

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Thursday, December 6, 2018

Tyler Cowen has a very interesting Bloomberg column on Brexit. Essentially, he views the UK getting this right -- which I agree it does not seem to be doing -- as a crucial test of democracy. Tyler notes that the current agreement serves neither leave nor remain sides well.

Analysis and Commentary

Canadian Non-QE

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Thursday, December 6, 2018

Friday at Hoover we will have a series of events reexamining the lessons of the financial crisis and recession. (There is a public event here, in case you're interested. Presenters include George Schultz, John Taylor, Niall Ferguson, Caroline Hoxby and Darrell Duffie.)

Featured

Taylor On China And Trade And Ideas

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Tim Taylor, also reviewing Summers on China, makes a few excellent points. Growth comes from within. Trade is not conquest.

Featured

Sumner On China; Trade In Ideas

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Scott Sumner, also reviewing Summers on China, makes a few excellent points. Growth comes from within. Trade is not conquest.

Analysis and Commentary

Summers On China

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Larry Summers has a good Financial Times oped on the same subject, titled "Washington may bluster but cannot stifle the Chinese economy." He puts well the point of my previous post: At the heart of the US’s problem in defining an economic strategy towards China is the following awkward fact. Suppose China had been fully compliant with every trade and investment rule and had been as open to the world as the most open countries at its income level.

Analysis and Commentary

Financing Innovation

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Monday, December 3, 2018

I went to the Financing of Innovation summit at Stanford GSB last Thursday. Amit Seru presented "Measuring Technological Innovation over the Long Run", joint work with Bryan Kelly, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Matt Taddy. They ran text analysis of patents, and judge similarity by whether patents use many of the same words. They define an innovative patent as one that doesn't use many of the same words as its predecessors, but many of the same words as its followers.

Featured

Trump Should Send China Flowers, Not Tariffs

by John H. Cochranevia The Hill
Monday, December 3, 2018

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met and declared a 90-day cease fire. Where will this end? It’s hard to forecast. Our commander in chief is less predictable than the stock market. But we can opine on what should happen. And we can look for interest — what is in everybody’s interest to have happen?

Analysis and Commentary

Opinions Change

by John H. Cochrane mentioning David Brady, Morris P. Fiorinavia Grumpy Economist
Friday, November 30, 2018

My Hoover colleagues David Brady and Mo Fiorina gave a recent talk updating some of their work on polling American political opinions. I found this one particularly interesting. Notice how after President Obama's first win in 2008, the fraction of Democrats reporting that the economy is getting better jumped from 10% to 50%. The Republican fraction declined, though not as much. When Trump was elected in 2016, the Republican opinion jumped from 15% to 80%, and Democrats fell from 60% to 25%.

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Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .