Marianna Kudlyak

Visiting Fellow
Biography: 

Marianna Kudlyak is a macroeconomist with a research focus on labor markets and consumer finance. She is research advisor (economist and bank officer) at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. She is also a research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and, starting in September 2021, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

Kudlyak has been with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco since May 2016. Previously, from August 2008, she worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. She was also a visiting scholar at the University of California–Berkeley, the University of Texas–Austin, the University of Montreal, and the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.

Kudlyak has conducted research on unemployment, non-employment, wages, online job searches, mortgage default, young borrowers, and inequality. Kudlyak and her coauthors have developed the Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index, an alternative measure of resource utilization in the labor market, which is updated monthly and posted publicly via the St. Louis FRED database. She has published numerous articles in academic journals and Federal Reserve publications. Kudlyak is ranked in the top 5 percent of economists worldwide (over the last ten years of publications) by IDEAS/RePEc.

Kudlyak received a PhD and MA in economics from the University of Rochester. Her research advisor is Mark Bils. 

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Recent Commentary

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The Effect Of The War On Human Capital In Ukraine And The Path For Rebuilding

by Marianna Kudlyakvia Center for Economic Policy Research
Tuesday, June 21, 2022

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine that has caused major destruction and loss of human life in the country. The war continues to have profound effects on the Ukrainian population. Rebuilding the country’s economy and a plan to revive the economic and social livelihoods of Ukrainians are of foremost importance. 

Co-authors: Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Ayşegül Şahin

In the News

How Unemployment Rises Like A Rocket, Falls Like A Feather

featuring Robert E. Hall, Marianna Kudlyakvia Financial Post
Tuesday, May 3, 2022

The less severe the recession, the longer and slower the recovery.

Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies

by Marianna Kudlyak, Murat Tasci, Didem Tüzemenvia Economics Working Papers
Thursday, April 21, 2022

Economics Working Paper 22109

Analysis and Commentary

The Pandemic's Impact On Unemployment And Labor Force Participation Trends

by Marianna Kudlyakvia Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Thursday, April 7, 2022

Following early 2020 responses to the pandemic, labor force participation declined dramatically and has remained below its 2019 level, whereas the unemployment rate recovered briskly.

The Pandemic's Impact on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Trends

by Marianna Kudlyakvia Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Thursday, April 7, 2022

Following early 2020 responses to the pandemic, labor force participation declined dramatically and has remained below its 2019 level, whereas the unemployment rate recovered briskly. We estimate the trend of labor force participation and unemployment and find a substantial impact of the pandemic on estimates of trend. It turns out that levels of labor force participation and unemployment in 2021 were approaching their estimated trends. A return to 2019 levels would then represent a tight labor market, especially relative to long-run demographic trends that suggest further declines in the participation rate.

Co-Author: Andreas Honstein

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The Unemployed with Jobs and without Jobs

by Robert E. Hall, Marianna Kudlyakvia Economics Working Papers
Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Economics Working Paper 21110

Featured

Comparing Pandemic Unemployment To Past U.S. Recoveries

by Robert E. Hall, Marianna Kudlyakvia Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Monday, November 29, 2021

Unemployment fell at a slow and steady rate in the 10 cyclical recoveries from 1949 through 2019. These historical patterns also apply to the recovery from the pandemic recession after accounting for the unprecedented burst of temporary layoffs early in the pandemic followed by their rapid reversal from April to November 2020. Unemployment for other reasons—which has been most important in other recent recoveries—did not start declining until November 2020.

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Dynamic Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Skills and Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk

by Ester Faia, Marianna Kudlyak, Ekaterina Shabalinavia Economics Working Papers
Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Economics Working Paper 21119

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