Paul Schmelzing

Visiting Fellow
Biography: 
Paul Schmelzing is a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. Schmelzing specializes in economic history, and is currently researching the International Financial System between 1926-1969, and the Bretton Woods architecture. He is also working on bond markets, and global interest rate trends since the 1300s.
 
He is currently a PhD Candidate at Harvard University, and a Visiting Scholar at the Bank of England. He has past work experience at the German Bundestag, Goldman Sachs, and a global macro hedge fund.

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Analysis and Commentary

The ‘Suprasecular’ Stagnation

by Paul Schmelzingvia VoxEu.org (Centre for Economic Policy Research)
Thursday, May 24, 2018

Growth rates have been stubbornly low since the financial crisis, and many have noted that the interest rate environment has been weakening since the 1980s. This column places recent episodes in the context of longer-term economic history, going back to the 14th century. Trends over recent decades are generally in line with a long-term ‘suprasecular’ trend of declining real rates. Negative real rates could become a more frequent phenomenon, and indeed constitute a ‘new normal’.