Paul Schmelzing


Paul Schmelzing was a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. Schmelzing specialized in economic history and researched the International Financial System between 1926-1969, and the Bretton Woods architecture. He also worked on bond markets, and global interest rate trends since the 1300s.

He is currently a PhD Candidate at Harvard University, and a Visiting Scholar at the Bank of England. He has past work experience at the German Bundestag, Goldman Sachs, and a global macro hedge fund.

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Recent Commentary

Interest Rates
In the News

Paul Schemelzing Goes Back In History To Bust Secular Stagnation Theory

featuring Paul Schmelzingvia Industry News Bulletin
Saturday, January 18, 2020

A history of over 7 centuries has shown that the times as they presently are particularly with respect to the interest rates are not too much different as the people have been led to have a belief, as per a research which has gone as far back as the 14th century.

Analysis and Commentary

The ‘Suprasecular’ Stagnation

by Paul Schmelzingvia (Centre for Economic Policy Research)
Thursday, May 24, 2018

Growth rates have been stubbornly low since the financial crisis, and many have noted that the interest rate environment has been weakening since the 1980s. This column places recent episodes in the context of longer-term economic history, going back to the 14th century. Trends over recent decades are generally in line with a long-term ‘suprasecular’ trend of declining real rates. Negative real rates could become a more frequent phenomenon, and indeed constitute a ‘new normal’.