This Friday, Vivek Lall explains why many Asian countries are increasing the size of their drone arsenals; Elisa Zhai Autry analyzes a popular trope in the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-American propaganda; and Niall Ferguson shares why he thinks recent US-Iran diplomacy is likely a “prelude” to American military strikes targeting the Iranian regime.
Security and Defense
For Freedom Frequency, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Vivek Lall assesses the growing demand for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), otherwise known as drones. Lall says Asian countries are lining up to amass this technology—a testament to UAVs’ utility not only in defense but in surveillance, monitoring, and even defusing conflict. Cross-border incursions of such craft can raise tensions, as in recent Pakistan-India confrontations, but the vehicles can also provide a way to spot trouble coming and head it off, he writes. The evolving use of what were once disparaged as mere “drones” means developing entire systems around them, Lall writes: they must be configurable, updateable, and useful for a country’s precise missions. Above all, a well-built command-and-control architecture is needed to give decision makers the crucial information—and time—they need to protect their countries, Lall concludes. Read more here.
Confronting and Competing with China
State-run propaganda seeks to convince China’s people that Americans struggle to stay above a “kill line” of minimal existence, while in China, the state cares for everyone’s needs. The spread of this propaganda phrase shows how invested China is in its materialistic, atheistic view of life, argues Research Fellow Elisa Zhai Autry at Defining Ideas. This materialism is impoverishing, not enriching, the Chinese people, Autry writes—it channels compassion only in state-approved directions and instills indifference to suffering in the world. China’s “kill line” philosophy, Autry says, not only impoverishes the ethical and spiritual lives of its people but also cuts them off from seeking true community. If China is ever freed to seek a deeper moral imagination, she concludes, “it must allow the civic and religious actors that cultivate grace, mercy, and second chances to flourish.” Read more here.
The Middle East
Speaking with CBS News, Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson argues that recent diplomatic discussions between the US and Iran are more likely an effort to “string along” Iran ahead of military strikes than a genuine effort to secure a new bilateral nuclear deal. “I think it would be a mistake to make the kind of deal the Iranians are talking about, which would allow them to continue to enrich uranium,” says Ferguson. “But I doubt very much that President Trump is going to cut such a deal. After all, it would look an awful lot like a version of President Obama’s ill-fated nuclear deal,” he continues. Ferguson says diplomatic talks are likely the “prelude to US strikes on Iran,” but that he doesn’t anticipate any military action similar to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. “This is going to be the kind of surgical strike that President Trump is known to prefer,” Ferguson suggests. Watch here.
Revitalizing American Institutions
On the latest episode of Matters of Policy & Politics, Tom Schnaubelt, executive director of Hoover’s Center for Revitalizing American Institutions (RAI), and Senior Fellow Checker Finn, chair of Hoover’s Working Group on Civics and American Citizenship, introduce Hoover’s pioneering Civic Profile, which launches in early March. The profile offers a three-part test to assess civics-related values, knowledge, and engagement. Host Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen asks this week’s guests how to keep the civics “push” going past the coming American semiquincentennial in early July, and about other RAI endeavors currently underway at Hoover. These initiatives include a network-forming Alliance for Civics in the Academy; “People, Politics, and Places” fellowships that bring rural undergraduate and graduate students to the Stanford University campus; and Hoover’s USA @ 250 lecture series on ideas, institutions, and civic traditions that have sustained American freedom since the republic’s founding. Listen here.
Monetary Policy
In a recent Economic Policy Working Group seminar, Senior Fellow John Cochrane explained why the euro, a common currency without a common fiscal policy, faces a classic problem: Each country is tempted to borrow, spend, and then—unable to repay—turn to the central bank to bail out its creditors. Cochrane argues that the euro was set up admirably to contain this problem, with an independent central bank that did not buy sovereign debts. But the setup of the euro left no mechanism for sovereign debt restructuring or default, and banks to this day may treat sovereign debt as risk free. Cochrane says this means that banks make concentrated investments in their own sovereigns’ debts, so any sovereign default threatens the financial system. In turn, that makes it harder for the European Central Bank not to intervene. Cochrane’s presentation, and his recent book Crisis Cycle, discuss this and related problems, and recommend a sequence of reforms. Read more here.
Featured Research Initiative
The State and Local Governance Initiative at the Hoover Institution conducts rigorous research to inform state and local government policy. Led by Senior Fellow Joshua D. Rauh, the team partners with government officials, policymakers, and other stakeholders to conduct analysis, generate actionable policy recommendations, and produce top-tier academic publications. Read more here.
Related Commentary