Today, Josef Joffe challenges the notion that regime change in Iran would resolve the geopolitical problems flowing from that nation; Michael McFaul unpacks why President Trump has increased his criticisms of Vladimir Putin and his support for Ukraine; and Steven J. Davis and coauthors share findings from their most recent survey of business uncertainty, reporting that among executives, “uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy remains pervasive.”
Determining America’s Role in the World
“Where institutions, even cruel ones, are dismantled, power struggles follow,” cautions Distinguished Visiting Fellow Josef Joffe in a piece for Defining Ideas. Against the current of opinion calling for regime change in Iran—be it overt or accomplished through quiet financial and technological interventions—Joffe offers reminders of the failures of such attempts in the 20th and early 21st centuries. Even if Iranians themselves threw off their current leadership, “the historical odds favor neither freedom nor tranquility,” and Joffe sees Russian and Chinese intervention as likely amid domestic Iranian chaos or civil warfare. Outlining a “practical approach to the problem of Iran,” Joffe urges Western leaders to “stick to strategic necessity in the months to come.” The goal, in his view, should simply be to keep nuclear weapons “out of Tehran’s hands,” something that can be accomplished with bombs and missiles. Read more here.
Writing at Time, Senior Fellow Michael McFaul argues that President Trump’s recent “change in approach toward Putin was a very long time in the making.” Analyzing the drivers of the shift in the president’s rhetoric and policy, McFaul suggests that the Russian autocrat “made a grave mistake in handling Trump.” Specifically, “Putin overreached,” under the belief that “Trump would either acquiesce or just abandon Ukraine.” But by stringing along peace talks and avoiding substantive concessions, McFaul writes, Putin began to make Trump “look weak.” In McFaul’s view, this led Trump to realize that arming Ukraine with American weaponry and green-lighting European support was the better way to bring the invading Russian force to the negotiating table. The former US ambassador to Russia concludes by noting that Trump could change course yet again, but that Ukraine’s supporters should “celebrate the win this week, and hope for even more in the coming months.” Read more here.
Answering Challenges to Advanced Economies
A new post from Senior Fellow and Director of Research Steven J. Davis and coauthors at the Policy Hub: Macroblog of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta unpacks findings from the June Survey of Business Uncertainty. The authors note that “seven out of every 10 executives said yes” when asked if their firms were facing uncertainty related to tariffs or trade policy. The affirmative responses were even higher in the manufacturing sector, “where nearly 90 percent of execs reported facing tariff-related uncertainty in June.” The researchers note, however, that “business executives disagree to a large extent on how long it will take for trade-policy uncertainty to appear in the rearview mirror rather than on the windshield.” Broadly speaking, some executives think uncertainty will calm by year’s end, while a smaller group anticipates that it will endure over the next several years. The authors plan to continue studying these trends in future surveys. Read more here.
Revitalizing American Institutions
As Republican governors in a number of states move to exclude purchases of candy and soda from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Senior Fellow Chester E. Finn, Jr. asks at the Flypaper blog whether “awful schools and fraudulent providers” will similarly be excluded from federal tax credits and state-level tuition voucher programs. Noting that some in the “libertarian wing” of the school-choice movement oppose “quality-control regulation” to vet the schools and programs that receive public education subsidies, Finn replies that “states and their leaders have an obligation” to ensure that education dollars advance the public purpose of producing an educated society. Finn shares his preference that only high-quality schools be eligible for public funds but acknowledges how this “edges into nanny state territory and may discourage the innovation and dynamism that K–12 education sorely needs.” Read more here.
In a new episode of Policy Stories, Research Fellow Cody Nager argues that while immigration has shaped America since its founding, the current system is burdened by the complexity of immigration procedures and a lack of strategic direction. His research shows how the nation once prioritized selectivity, simplicity, and local input principles that advanced both economic growth and the civic cohesion of the United States. Restoring those principles, Nager suggests, can help modernize immigration policy to meet today’s national priorities. Informed by American history, Nager’s framework for immigration reform offers a path toward a system that is both principled and practical. Watch here.
This Month in Hoover History
On July 12–14, 2022, the Hoover Institution welcomed its overseers for the summer 2022 board meeting, marking the first time the event had been hosted in person and on the Stanford University campus since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The kick-off keynote featured a dinner conversation between Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice and South Dakota’s then-governor Kristi Noem, who today serves as Secretary of Homeland Security. Read more here.
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