Today, Condoleezza Rice argues that policymakers must respond to the enduring geopolitical, economic, and technological forces reshaping the world rather than the politics of the moment; Joshua Rauh and Gregory Kearney argue that Illinois’s growing pension obligations are steadily crowding out spending on education and other essential public services; and John Cochrane explains why debates over tariffs often miss the underlying economics of trade.
America and the World
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice argued that today’s geopolitical situation is not defined by the decisions of any single presidential administration. Pointing to America’s changing role in alliances, the strategic challenge posed by China, and the convergence of technological and national security competition, Rice urged the nation to look beyond political cycles. As she put it, “We’d better respond to the secular trends, not to who’s in the White House.” Watch here.
State and Local Government
In an op-ed at the Chicago Tribune, Senior Fellow Joshua D. Rauh and Senior Research Analyst Gregory Kearney argue that Illinois’s escalating public pension obligations are steadily crowding out spending on education and other core public services. Using newly compiled data and a new atlas that tracks K-12 education pension spending, they show that Illinois devotes one of the largest shares of its education budget to pension contributions, leaving fewer resources for teachers, classrooms, counselors, and other student services. They contend that without structural reforms to the state’s pension system, retirement costs will continue to erode educational investment, strain taxpayers, and undermine Illinois’s long-term fiscal stability. Read more here. [Subscription required]
At City Journal, Visiting Fellow Matthew E. Kahn and co-author Shawn Regan argue that California’s state and local governments have turned recovery from the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires into a “disaster after the disaster.” Eighteen months after the Palisades and Eaton fires destroyed nearly 13,000 homes, "government regulations, permitting delays, insurance dysfunction, and other institutional barriers continue to stifle recovery." The authors argue that California has prioritized restoring communities as they existed before the fires rather than enabling safer, more resilient redevelopment. They contend that, "Without serious reform, the conditions that produced the 2025 fires remain largely in place." Read more here.
Trade and Economic Security
At The Grumpy Economist, Senior Fellow John Cochrane argues that much of the debate over tariffs "misses the point" because it focuses on who writes the check instead of what is actually being exchanged. Even if foreign producers bear the full cost of a tariff, he argues, they can only obtain the dollars to pay it by exporting more goods to the United States. Cochrane extends that logic to claims of "predatory" trade, questioning whether it makes sense to describe receiving low-priced goods from abroad as exploitation. He concludes: "it’s always helps to ask where the money goes for a few steps, and to look past the money and figure out what a policy means in terms of underlying real goods and services." Read more here.
Protectionism, expressed in recent increases in tariffs, could undermine the very economic security and resilience it seeks to ensure, warn economists Yongsung Chang and Kei-Mu Yi in a new essay at Freedom Frequency’s Commons Dispatch channel. South Korea, for example, has a strong and mutually beneficial relationship with the United States that also helps insulate the US economy against shocks. Trade with countries like South Korea—advanced, deeply integrated into the US economy—is especially valuable because of its advantages in strategic industries with hard-to-replace supply chains like shipbuilding, batteries, and semiconductors, they argue. Read more here.
History Lab
Indonesia’s revised Armed Forces Law expands the military’s role into cybersecurity, border management, disaster response, and other functions traditionally led by civilian institutions. Although these changes respond to genuine security and administrative challenges, they also revive a long-standing pattern of military involvement in political life and civilian governance. In a new Policy in Brief video from the Hoover History Lab, Research Fellow Norman Joshua explains that this expansion reflects not only military ambition but also the weakness of civilian institutions that lack the capacity and expertise to manage national crises. Indonesia’s experience shows that preserving both state capacity and democratic accountability requires civilian institutions strong enough to govern effectively without making the military a permanent substitute. Watch here.
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