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Analysis and Commentary

Global Perils in Perspective

by Robert Conquestvia Hoover Daily Report
Monday, March 6, 2000

Revolution, in the extreme twentieth-century sense of the seizure of power by a fanatical ideological group, has largely faded.

A Strategic Flip-Flop in the Caribbean

by William Ratliffvia Analysis
Wednesday, March 1, 2000

For almost three decades the U.S. embargo of Cuba was part of America's cold war strategy against the Soviet bloc. It should have been lifted after that ‘‘war’’ ended since Castro ceased to threaten the United States and its neighbors and adopted the standard rules of international behavior. But inertia, a powerful Cuban American lobby, and misguided politicians set new demands: democracy, improved human rights, and economic reform. When Castro demurred we tightened the sanctions in 1992 and again in 1996 with the Helms-Burton Law. The United States has never committed the resources necessary to overthrow Castro, however, and the pressures we have applied have utterly failed to advance the three objectives. Worse yet, in the post–cold war world the policy and political outlook that sustain it have become a strategic liability. They promote conflict, both within Cuba—where a crisis might draw in the U.S. military—and abroad, as occurred in 1999–2000 after the arrival in Florida of the rafter boy, Elián González. They allow pressure groups to stand in the way of the policy-making process of the U.S. government. For example, the lobby manipulated wishy-washy politicians in 1998–1999 and got the president to turn down a widely supported proposal for a bipartisan commission to conduct the first comprehensive evaluation of the policy in four decades. Finally, the imperialistic Helms-Burton Law alienates allies worldwide and will poison relations between the United States and Cuba for decades to come. Castro will benefit no matter what we do, but on balance he gains more if we maintain the sanctions because they provide a scapegoat for his own repression and economic failures even as they enable him to maintain his cherished global image as the ‘‘scourge of U.S. imperialism.’’ Castro can wage a worldwide campaign against the embargo to bolster his image knowing Washington is too inflexible to change it. Indeed, whenever Washington has lightened up, Castro has tightened up and effectively prevented further improvement. Lifting sanctions need not mean establishing friendly relations with Castro—which he would reject in any event—or supporting his efforts to get international aid without meeting standard requirements. The ultimate responsibility for maintaining this antiquated and potentially dangerous policy falls on politicians who either do not understand the need for, or for political reasons are afraid to support, a new policy to benefit both Americans and Cubans in the post–cold war world.

Analysis and Commentary

Changing the Conventional Wisdom on Foreign Policy

by Thomas H. Henriksenvia Hoover Daily Report
Monday, February 21, 2000

One difficult task a new administration in Washington faces is changing the conventional wisdom in our foreign affairs.

Analysis and Commentary

Ulterior Motives in Chechnya

by Michael McFaulvia Hoover Daily Report
Monday, December 13, 1999

All countries have the right to defend their people from terrorists. Russia is no exception.

Analysis and Commentary

Why Politics Should Not Stop at the Water’s Edge

by Bruce Bueno de Mesquitavia Hoover Daily Report
Monday, November 15, 1999

Presidential election seasons inevitably lead to calls for bipartisanship in foreign policy.

Judicial Corruption in Developing Countries: Its Causes and Economic Consequences

by Edgardo Buscagliavia Analysis
Thursday, July 1, 1999

Many scholars have provided path-breaking contributions to the institutional analysis of systemic and systematic corruption. Descriptive studies focusing on corrupt practices and on the impact of corruption on economic development are abundant. Yet the literature has not yet isolated the main legal, organizational, and market-related causes of systemic corruption within the public sector in general and within the judiciary in particular.

This essay proposes a framework within which the institutional analysis of corrupt activities within the judiciary can be further understood in developing countries. First, an approach to the study of public sector corruption based on science, not on guesswork or intuition, must be verifiable if we are to develop reliable anticorruption policy prescriptions. Therefore, legal, economic, and organizational factors are proposed here to explain corruption within the judicial sectors of developing countries. Second, the economic theory of corruption should recognize that official corruption is a significant source of institutional inertia in public sector reforms. An account of the private costs and benefits of judicial reforms as perceived by public officials is also considered in this study.

Using Power and Diplomacy To Deal With Rogue States

by Thomas H. Henriksenvia Analysis
Monday, February 1, 1999

The end of the cold war a decade ago has ushered in a greatly transformed international landscape. Instead of a pacific era of peace and political harmony, the world, and particularly the United States, has been confronted with a menacing challenge of rogue regimes whose propensity for violence is matched by their intentions to disrupt regional stability, contribute to outlaw behavior worldwide, or to possess weapons of mass destruction. Ruthless rogues also endanger American interests and citizens by their active or passive sponsorship of terrorism. If left unchecked, rogue states like Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya, and others will threaten innocent populations, undermine international norms, and spawn other pariah regimes, as the global order becomes tolerant of this political malignancy.

As a major beneficiary of a global order of free markets, free trade, growing prosperity and spreading democracy, the United States, the world's sole superpower, must take the lead in confronting rogue governments, even though our allies may balk from time to time. Specifically, American power should be used to enhance the credibility of our diplomacy. Law and diplomacy alone are unlikely to affect rogue dictators. They must be reinforced with power. Four broad policy options, which in most cases should be combined rather than implemented individually, can be applied:

  • Sanctions and isolation to achieve containment of and inflict economic damage on a rogue state
  • International courts and domestic prosecution to bring rogue criminals to justice
  • Shows of strength and armed interventions to coerce or eliminate rogue regimes
  • Support for opposition movements or covert operations to oust rogue figures

Unless the United States addresses the challenge of rogue states with a combination of force and diplomacy, the new millennium will witness a widening of global anarchy, deteriorating progress toward economic development, and declining political reform. Dire consequences await the United States if it fails to react forcefully to international roguery.

The comments of my colleagues Charlie Hill, James Noyes, Henry Rowen, and Abraham Sofaer were helpful and are gratefully acknowledged along with those from Addison Davis, David Gillette, Bradley Murphy, Douglas Neumann, Piers Turner, and Robin Wright.

Hong Kong Under Chinese Rule: The First Year

by Alvin Rabushkavia Analysis
Wednesday, July 1, 1998

July 1, 1998, marks the first anniversary of Hong Kong under Chinese rule. How has Hong Kong fared during its first year as the newly created Hong Kong Special Autonomous Region of China (HKSAR)? The one positive story was the HKSAR's successful defense of the fixed link between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar, which serves as backing for Hong Kong currency. In almost every other respect, the people of Hong Kong are worse off than they were during the last years of British colonial rule. The greatest setback was in the political arena. Nearly two million Hong Kong residents lost the right to vote in the May 24, 1998, elections for thirty of the sixty representatives of the HKSAR's legislature, who were chosen from functional constituencies. In general, the principle of one man, one vote was violated in favor of extremely complicated, three-tiered, rigged electoral arrangements to ensure that pro-China candidates would constitute a legislative majority. Several civil liberties were eliminated or reduced. Mainland Chinese cronyism was reflected in the purchase of substantial stakes in Hong Kong firms by Hong Kong branches of mainland firms at a substantial discount to market prices, until the Asian financial crisis transformed connections with mainland business and political organizations from an asset into a liability. The stock and property markets lost up to half their peak August 1997 value. English-language education was curtailed over the objections of parents and students as numerous schools that formerly taught in English were converted into Chinese-language schools.

An Assessment of Chinese Thinking on Trade Liberalization

by Jialin Zhangvia Analysis
Friday, April 18, 1997

An examination of recent theoretical and empirical research in China about that country's trade protection policies reveals that an increasing number of leading economists now favor the liberalization of the Chinese market economy and its closer integration with the world economy. Chinese policy toward foreign trade reveals greater domestic market openness. Not only has China deeply cut tariffs in recent years but it is committed to even greater cuts in the next few years to an average rate of 15 percent by the year 2000, a level maintained by most developing countries. Chinese policymakers, recognizing that greater foreign direct investment and imports mean acquiring foreign technology, are now eager to liberalize the regimes trading system and to reduce protection for those high-cost uncompetitive enterprises and industries.

Nuclear Blackmail: The 1994 U.S.–Democratic People's Republic of Korea Agreed Framework on North Korea's Nuclear Program

via Analysis
Tuesday, April 1, 1997

In 1993 the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) refused to let international inspectors see whether it had secretly separated plutonium for bombs. Subsequent negotiations led to a 1994 U.S.–DPRK Agreed Framework that stopped the North's plutonium production but at heavy political and financial cost. The 1994 agreement and its background are the subjects of this paper.

The United States will supply North Korea with two large nuclear power reactors worth more than $4 billion (mainly from South Korea and Japan) and a substantial fuel oil supply until the first power reactor begins to operate. North Korea has stopped running a small plutonium production reactor and constructing two larger ones. The disputed inspections were postponed until the United States supplied a substantial portion of the new reactors. The DPRK is supposed to have dismantled its indigenous facilities by the time both new reactors are completed.

The agreement leaves the United States subject to the continued threat of a restart of DPRK plutonium production. One way to limit this would be through "phased performance"--the progressive dismantling of DPRK facilities as the new reactors are built. Although the DPRK will object to starting to dismantle now, it will be in a stronger position to object when it has the new reactors.

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