Today, Steven J. Davis provides a comprehensive economic analysis of the Trump administration’s trade policies; the Hoover Institution invites you to a celebration of Thomas Sowell’s remarkable intellectual and public policy impact; and Michael McFaul explains the motivations behind his forthcoming book, Autocrats vs. Democrats.
Freedom Frequency
In a post to Hoover’s Substack publication Freedom Frequency, Senior Fellow and Director of Research Steven J. Davis analyzes the “dizzying array of tariff hikes, threats, reversals, export controls, deadlines, concessions, retaliations, vague deals, and promises of deals to come” made by President Trump since February. In aggregate, Davis finds that the result of Trump’s trade policy has been “a rupture in the international trading order that, despite its many flaws, fostered prosperity and security for more than eighty years.” Davis reviews the effects of current high tariffs across economic sectors, also emphasizing the negative implications of the legally contested manner in which they have been implemented, using presidential emergency powers. “It will take many years, much work, and internal US reforms to restore the trust and confidence destroyed by the Trumpian approach to trade policy,” Davis concludes. Read more here.
Celebrating Thomas Sowell
For those local to the Bay Area, the Hoover Institution cordially invites you to join us on October 20 as we celebrate Senior Fellow Thomas Sowell’s remarkable scholarly contributions and honor his lasting impact on the world of ideas. Thomas Sowell is one of America’s most influential intellectuals—an economist, social theorist, and public commentator whose work, grounded in rigorous research, has shaped national conversations for over five decades. Sowell has authored more than forty books and countless essays on economics, education, race, and culture. Known for making complex ideas accessible to broad audiences, his fearless commitment to truth, reason, and independent thought has left an enduring legacy that continues to inspire scholars, policymakers, and citizens alike. Join us for a day of discussion and debate centered on the ideas and impact of this legendary scholar. Learn more here.
Determining America’s Role in the World
In a post at his Substack, Senior Fellow Michael McFaul explains the “personal and political motivations behind” his latest book. As he notes, “A book that is years in the making accumulates multiple objectives over time. That was certainly true for me in writing Autocrats vs. Democrats.” McFaul gives an overview of those different objectives, writing that beyond “explaining and describing great power politics, the final motivation for writing Autocrats vs. Democrats was to provide a blueprint for American foreign policy makers and citizens in the 21st century.” The former US ambassador to Russia shares how his book seeks to identify and explain certain policy mistakes from the Cold War, as well as “successes from the Cold War that should be replicated, and policies necessary for addressing China and Russia in the present day that have no direct connection to the Cold War.” Read more here.
Answering Challenges to Advanced Economies
At Barron’s, Matt Peterson profiles Distinguished Visiting Fellow Kevin Warsh, widely viewed in public reporting as among the top three contenders to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh recounts an impactful meeting with former Fed chair Paul Volcker, who is credited with quashing high inflation rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s. “He said to me, the job of the central bank is to do two things. It is, first, to get interest rates about right. And second—and he emphasized it was at least as important as the first—is to make sure you look like you know what you’re doing.” Applying these principles to the current era, Warsh says, “The Powell Fed has failed on both measures.” As the piece notes, “Warsh would chart a new course that de-emphasizes the inflationary impact of factors such as supply chains and tariffs in favor of a view of inflation driven by government spending and the money supply.” Read more here. [Subscription required.]
Energy and the Environment
Sound energy policy requires an understanding of the factual foundations of energy generation, national security, economic prosperity, and environmental stewardship. In a conversation for Hoover’s Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy, moderated by Senior Fellow Michael J. Boskin, Senior Fellow Arun Majumdar, Visiting Fellow Bjorn Lomborg, and Daniel Yergin, vital information is provided on energy supply, growing energy demand for AI, the limited impacts of climate policies on actual climate outcomes, and the need to accommodate energy realities as the basis for policy decisions. The scholars emphasize several realities, including the vast size of the US and global energy sector; the fact that while renewables have grown rapidly, those energy sources on balance have not replaced fossil fuels, which have continued to grow and still account for 80 percent of energy supply; and the need for a full-cycle evaluation of climate policies to assess their net impact. Read more here.
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