Shay Khatiri returns to Secrets of Statecraft to examine the internal dynamics of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the current context of war, protest, and long-term political decay. Reflecting on his experience in the 2009 Green Movement and subsequent exile, Khatiri argues that the regime has evolved into a security state dominated by military interests, while losing both public trust and religious legitimacy. The discussion explores the prospects for regime change, the role of opposition figures, the risks of civil conflict, and the broader geopolitical implications—including Iran’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. A detailed and sobering assessment of Iran’s present—and its uncertain future.

Recorded on April 6, 2026.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Shay Khatiri is the VP of development and a senior fellow at the Yorktown Institute and a researcher at CAMERA. An immigrant from Iran, he is an alumnus of Arizona State University and the strategic studies department at Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies. He publishes the Substack newsletter, The World Islands.

Follow Shay Khatiri on social media: X, Instagram and LinkedIn

ABOUT THE SERIES

Secrets of Statecraft​ is a bimonthly podcast hosted by Distinguished Visiting Fellow Andrew Roberts that explores the effect that the study of history has had on the careers and decision-making of public figures. The podcast also features leading historians discussing the influence that the study of history had on their biographical subjects. The title is taken from Winston Churchill’s reply on Coronation Day 1953 to a young American who had asked him for life advice, to whom he said, “Study history, study history, for therein lie all the secrets of statecraft.”

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