John H. Cochrane

Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow
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Biography: 

John H. Cochrane is the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and an adjunct scholar of the CATO Institute. 

Before joining Hoover, Cochrane was  a Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, and earlier at its Economics Department. Cochrane earned a bachelor’s degree in physics at MIT and his PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. He was a junior staff economist on the Council of Economic Advisers (1982–83).

Cochrane’s recent publications include the book Asset Pricing and articles on dynamics in stock and bond markets, the volatility of exchange rates, the term structure of interest rates, the returns to venture capital, liquidity premiums in stock prices, the relation between stock prices and business cycles, and option pricing when investors can’t perfectly hedge. His monetary economics publications include articles on the relationship between deficits and inflation, the effects of monetary policy, and the fiscal theory of the price level. He has also written articles on macroeconomics, health insurance, time-series econometrics, financial regulation, and other topics. He was a coauthor of The Squam Lake Report. His Asset Pricing PhD class is available online via Coursera. 

Cochrane frequently contributes editorial opinion essays to the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg.com, and other publications. He maintains the Grumpy Economist blog.

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Recent Commentary

Featured

Almost Sane Housing Supply

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

California, despite being a one-party state, is actively debating SB50 that would over-ride local zoning laws and allow construction of apartment buildings, especially near transit areas.

Featured

Free Solo And Economic Growth

by John H. Cochranevia The Grumpy Economist
Monday, May 13, 2019

We recently watched "Free Solo", the great movie about Alex Honnold's free (no aids, no ropes) solo climb of El Capitan. Among many other things, it got me thinking about economic growth.

Featured

Financial Inflation?

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Friday, May 10, 2019

Torsten Slok sends this lovely picture of the S&P500 and the price index for portfolio management and investment advice services. Torsten explains that "50% of the decline in core PCE inflation since the peak in July has been driven by financial services, and with the stock market rebounding, we should expect to see the financial services component move higher again."

Featured

Rent Control Poem

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Thursday, May 9, 2019

"Kevinsch" posts an remarkable essay on rent control on a Seattle city council blog (HT Marginal Revolution).

Featured

Jenkins On ACA

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Holman Jenkins "Obamacare is popular because it failed" from a week ago is worth savoring and has an interesting new idea.

Analysis and Commentary

Ip On Carbon Tax

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Tuesday, May 7, 2019

Over the weekend, Greg Ip at WSJ wrote a nice piece on the carbon tax. Greg addresses some common objections. This urge to stop at nothing to find an effective solution is understandable. How can you put a price tag on the future of the planet?

Analysis and Commentary

The Fiscal Roots Of Inflation

by John H. Cochranevia The National Bureau Of Economic Research
Tuesday, May 7, 2019

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. This change in value must correspond to a change in expected future surpluses, a change in their discount rates, or a contemporaneous change in nominal bond returns.

Featured

Smith, MMT, And Science In Economics

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Sunday, May 5, 2019

Many blog readers have asked for my opinions of "Modern Monetary Theory." I haven't written yet, because I try to read about things in some detail, ideally from original sources, before reviewing them, which I have not done. Life is short.

Analysis and Commentary

Perpetually Wrong Forecasts

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Friday, April 12, 2019

Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank sends along the following fascinating graphs. The titles seem a little off. Yes, the market is expecting rate cuts (forward rate) but the market has been exactly wrong about everything for 10 years (and longer) first forecasting the recovery that never came, then forecasting much slower interest rate rises than actually happened. Survey expectations seem to match the forward curves well except perhaps at the very end.

In the News

The Inflation Puzzle

quoting John H. Cochranevia Investors Chronicle (UK)
Thursday, April 11, 2019

Next week’s figures are likely to show that consumer price index (CPI) inflation is below its 2 per cent target, which means that a decade of near-zero interest rates has not led to high inflation.

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Current Online Courses

Asset Pricing, Part 1, via Coursera and the University of Chicago

This course is part one of a two-part introductory survey of graduate-level academic asset pricing. We will focus on building the intuition and deep understanding of how the theory works, how to use it, and how to connect it to empirical facts. This first part builds the basic theoretical and empirical tools around some classic facts. The second part delves more deeply into applications and empirical evaluation. Learn more. . .