Paul R. Gregory

Research Fellow

Paul Gregory is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. He holds an endowed professorship in the Department of Economics at the University of Houston, Texas, is a research professor at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, and is emeritus chair of the International Advisory Board of the Kiev School of Economics. Gregory has held visiting teaching appointments at Moscow State University, Viadrina University, and the Free University of Berlin. He blogs on national and international economic topics at and

The holder of a PhD in economics from Harvard University, he is the author or coauthor of twelve books and more than one hundred articles on economic history, the Soviet economy, transition economies, comparative economics, and economic demography. Gregory’s economics papers have been published in American Economic Review, Econometrica, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of Economic History, and the Journal of Comparative Economics.  His most recent books are Women of the Gulag: Portraits of Five Remarkable Lives (Hoover Institution Press, 2013), Politics, Murder, and Love in Stalin's Kremlin: The Story of Nikolai Bukharin and Anna Larina (Hoover Institution Press, 2010), Lenin’s Brain and Other Tales from the Secret Soviet Archives (Hoover Institution Press, 2008), Terror by Quota (Yale, 2009), and The Political Economy of Stalinism (Cambridge, 2004), which won the Hewett Prize. He edited The Lost Transcripts of the Politburo (Yale, 2008), Behind the Façade of Stalin's Command Economy (Hoover, 2001), and The Economics of Forced Labor: The Soviet Gulag (Hoover, 2003). The work of his Hoover Soviet Archives Research Project team is summarized in "Allocation under Dictatorship: Research in Stalin's Archive" (coauthored with Hoover fellow Mark Harrison), published in the Journal of Economic Literature.

Gregory has also published The Global Economy and Its Economic Systems (Cengage, 2013) and is working with director Marianna Yarovskaya on a film documentary entitled Women of the Gulag.

Gregory also served on the editorial board of the seven-volume Gulag documentary series entitled The History of the Stalin Gulag, published jointly by the Hoover Institution and the Russian Archival Service. He also serves or has served on the editorial boards of Comparative Economic Studies, Slavic Review, Journal of Comparative Economics, Problems of Post-Communism, and Explorations in Economic History.

His research papers are available at the Hoover Institution Archives.

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Recent Commentary

Analysis and Commentary

Do Alternative Estimates Show China Entering A Period Of Stagnation?

by Paul R. Gregoryvia Forbes
Monday, August 15, 2016

The media have largely ignored the alternative estimates of Chinese growth of the Conference Board. These calculations (discussed below) claim that China’s growth has been overstated by some thirty percent over the reform era, that it has averaged around five percent for the past five years, and is little different or lower than the two large Asian Tigers (Taiwan and South Korea) during their thirty years of rapid growth starting in 1960. 

Analysis and Commentary

DNC Data Dump Gives Putin A Two-For-One Win

by Paul R. Gregoryvia Forbes
Monday, July 25, 2016

Wikileak’s release of 19,252 emails from the accounts of Democratic National Committee (DNC) officials constitutes Hillary Clinton’s rude introduction to Vladimir Putin’s hybrid warfare. 

Analysis and Commentary

Trump, Deferring To Putin, Deleted GOP Platform's Call To Supply Ukraine With Lethal Defensive Weapons

by Paul R. Gregoryvia Forbes
Monday, July 18, 2016

According to multiple accounts, the Trump campaign has successfully worked behind the scenes to make sure the new Republican platform would not pledge the lethal defensive weapons Ukraine has been pleading for from the United States. 

Analysis and Commentary

Hillary Clinton's Emails: The Missing Point

by Paul R. Gregoryvia Forbes
Saturday, July 9, 2016

The New York Times has concluded that Hillary’s server was most likely hacked along with the accounts of her inner circle. The Times does not note, however, that the breach of Clinton’s email would have taken place before the scrubbing of 30,000 emails she deemed “private.” It is this cache of destroyed emails that pose the greatest remaining threat to Mrs. Clinton.

Analysis and Commentary

How Benghazi Can Still Hurt Hillary Clinton

by Paul R. Gregoryvia Forbes
Wednesday, June 29, 2016

The Republican members of the House Select Committee on Benghazi released their report yesterday to a storm of media bias. CNN’s banner headline running under the press conference read “House Committee finds no wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton.” The New York Times worded it differently: “House Benghazi Report Finds No New Evidence of Wrongdoing by Hillary Clinton.” Does this rule out old evidence of wrongdoing?

Analysis and Commentary

Calm Down, Brexit Will Not Be A Catastrophe

by Paul R. Gregoryquoting Richard A. Epsteinvia Forbes
Friday, June 24, 2016

The European Union (EU) was founded by France and Germany for a political reason: By creating a common market, wars among European states would be thrown into history’s ashbin. England was a latecomer to this process, joining the union in 1973. From modest beginnings, the EU has expanded to 28 member states.

Analysis and Commentary

What Russia's DNC Hack Tells Us About Hillary Clinton's Private Email Server

by Paul R. Gregoryvia Forbes
Wednesday, June 15, 2016

In an exclusive today, the Washington Post reports that two Russian intelligence agencies hacked the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) database which included opposition research on Donald Trump. The Post says “The intruders so thoroughly compromised the DNC’s system that they also were able to read all email and chat traffic.” 

Analysis and Commentary

Putin's Army Of Internet Trolls Is Influencing The Hillary Clinton Email Scandal

by Paul R. Gregoryvia Forbes
Sunday, June 5, 2016

The Hillary Clinton email scandal broke more than three years ago—on March 19, 2013—with the Russian news service RT’s publication of Sidney Blumenthal’s emails to the then-Secretary of State. What most American journalists don’t realize is that Putin’s internet army continues to influence the evolution of the story.

Analysis and Commentary

Putin For Life?

by Paul R. Gregoryvia Forbes
Wednesday, May 25, 2016

One of the few remaining non-Kremlin-line newspapers, RBK, leaked a memo in its possession from the Investigations Committee of the Russian Federation, headed by General Nikolai Tutevich, to General Viktor Zolotov, commander of the newly-created National Guard of the Russian Federation.

Analysis and Commentary

Trump’s First Principles: The Foreign Policy Speech Was A Good Start

by Paul R. Gregoryvia What Paul Gregory Is Thinking About (Blog)
Thursday, May 12, 2016

I am no fan of Donald Trump. I have taken him to task for his foolhardy comments on Vladimir Putin and his dismissive remarks on NATO and Ukraine. In the one area where economists agree, Trump takes a dangerous anti-trade mercantilist position.