Nina Karnaukh of Ohio State sent along this lovely graph of the 6 month Fed Funds futures around the beginning of August. Read this as the market's guess about what is happening to the Federal Funds rate over the next 6 months.
A few days ago, an amazing thing happened when Thomas Brand (@thlbr) tweeted about a short article I posted on my blog EconomicsOne.com. My post was old–posted 10 years ago on October 3, 2009–and I titled it “A Beautiful Model, A Clear Prediction.”
Fifteen years ago, the Democrats backed off from the hard left, taking the safe route in nominating a boring and sedate party man — and came close to winning against a controversial incumbent president.
Looking at this array of subprograms and grantees, one might suppose that Uncle Sam is driving the charter bus. But look at it another way. Federal funding for CSP reached a peak of $440 million in FY 2019—and the Trump administration budgeted $500 million for FY 2020 (though at this writing House appropriators have approved just $400 milllion).
If I ignored my mother’s call for dinner a few times while playing with friends outside, she could get my attention by suggesting emphatically, “Gregory, I’m going to tell your father when he gets home if you don’t get in here and eat.” As I recall the suggestion worked; although I huffed a bit as I told my friends I had to go. There was no question about what the “tell dad” phrase meant. Absolutely nothing confusing about that!
Ben Shapiro is right. Facts don’t care about your emotions. But voters do. We are living in a very strange time in America. By all objective measures, most Americans are safer and more prosperous than at any time since the Revolutionary War. And I write this fully aware of the double tragedy last weekend.