Policy Implications for the US and the World. Thoughtful and informed analysis and policy responses to mitigate the potential effects of the pandemic. This portal is a central location for those seeking specific policy options from the Hoover Institution addressing the public health emergency and resulting economic challenges posed by Covid-19.
Via Marginal Revolution, a very clever idea from Scott Ellison: I propose temporarily stopping time. This means that today’s date, Tuesday, March 17th, 2020, will remain the current date until further notice. This also means that everything that happens in time (e.g. mortgage due dates, payrolls, travel bookings, stock market trading, contractor gigs, concerts, sporting events) will be paused. It also means that all of these events remain on the books, and will continue as planned once time is resumed.
The ninth edition of the Decision 2020 Report highlights Hoover fellows’ research and analysis on the Russian Federation’s history, ideology, and global ambitions. It also covers the Russian economy and the dynamics of US-Russian relations.
Hoover Institution fellow Russ Roberts joins forces with Tyler Cowen to discuss how both are adjusting to social isolation, private versus public responses to the pandemic, the challenge of reforming scrambled organization capital, the implications for Trump’s reelection, appropriate fiscal and monetary responses, bailouts, innovation prizes, and more.
Maybe you dressed in green, imbibed Guinness, and feasted on corned beef and cabbage at some point in the past few days. Otherwise Erin Go Bragh was “Erin go bust” in California, what with a raft of St. Patrick’s Day celebrations canceled and bars closed statewide.
More data is critical in understanding the virus in general and in particular its transmission in particular countries. Anyone who looks at rates of morality and lethality of influenza and related pneumonia, especially in the elderly and infirm, can be shocked at the wide variances between particular countries.
Hoover Institution fellow Victor Davis Hanson says that China’s handling of the coronavirus “ruined their international brand,” having potential serious repercussions on its economy as foreign companies may exit.
Hoover Institution fellow Richard Epstein says that it seems more probable than not that the total number of cases worldwide will peak out at well under 1 million, with the total number of deaths at under 50,000…In the United States, if the total death toll increases at about the same rate, the current 67 deaths should translate into about 500 deaths at the end."
With the help of experts in network theory and precedents from history, Ferguson argues that the printing press had similar consequences for 16th-and 17th-century Europe as the personal computer and the Internet have for the world since the 20th century, leading to polarization and the dissemination of fake news.
It may be too strong to say that China and the United States are engaged in “germ warfare,” but the Chinese propaganda effort, aided by our own irrepressible fifth column in the media that seems to want to take China’s side against the U.S., reveals that the COVID-19 episode may prove an inflection point—a crisis for the Chinese regime akin to the Chernobyl disaster in the Soviet Union—that results in some fundamental re-orderings of our globalized world in fairly short order.
The spread of information and disinformation via social networks is the subject of not one but two documentaries this week -- an especially timely one-two punch, at a moment when the value of facts and sobriety have never felt at more of a premium.
There is a frenzy of rule-making right now. Obviously, some of it is important as it may help calm American workers, business owners, and investors. But we should always remember that even in normal times, the government makes a lot of bad decisions. Emergencies and the resulting panic will not improve the government’s batting average on this front. It will only make it worse.
Today’s biggest employers are food delivery and gig jobs. If a big consumption decline happens and people under-employed at home rediscover the joys of self-help and cooking meals, what are the consequences?
We want to commend our students, faculty and staff for their continued flexibility and patience during this challenging time as the campus makes critical adjustments in response to COVID-19. To give a snapshot of what UCLA is like with remote learning in place, we asked a few undergraduate students in leadership roles to share their experiences so far. Their responses were sent in before the announcement that remote learning will be extended through the end of spring quarter.
My colleague Victor Davis Hanson wrote in these pages last week likening the coronavirus outbreak to a war. He is right, but let me take the analogy a bit further. Sitting through COVID-19 is a bit like waiting through an incoming artillery barrage. Over the years, I’ve had some experience getting shot at as have many readers with time in war zones; I’ll leave it to them to decide if the analogy is apt.
Precedent doesn’t provide much guidance. There’s a deadly coronavirus threatening to circulate through the population. The resulting government orders and social sanctions for self-distancing and self-isolating behavior is something unprecedented in living memory.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is facing increasing pressure to go well beyond its crisis-era play book and dramatically boost its support for the nose-diving economy via new lending programs for businesses and state and local governments.
I write here about fear and loathing on Wall Street that the market crash and subsequent recession could be far worse than anyone is expecting. The White House hopes for a V-shaped recession that features a quick bounce back. But that would require agreement on a massive federal stimulus. And we aren’t nearly there yet.
Not long ago, the CMFA staff and I were preparing to officially launch The Menace of Fiscal QE, my book aimed at countering efforts to have the Fed undertake or otherwise fund off-budget government spending programs.
While many of us turn to the government for answers to the COVID-19 pandemic, others rightfully seek solutions from the private sector. Last week, the Hoover Institution's Russ Roberts asked his many Twitter followers to help "create a list of voluntary (non-coercive) actions taking place right now to reduce COVID-19 spread or impact." The answers are too inspiring not to share.
How far can interest rates fall? Currently, many sovereign rates sit in negative territory, and there is an unprecedented $10 trillion in negative-yielding debt. This new interest rate climate has many observers wondering where the bottom truly lies.