This Friday, Stephen Kotkin reviews a new book on influential 20th-century communist Leon Trotsky and explains how the belief system of Marxist revolutionaries led them to moral depravity; Tom Church and Daniel Heil outline the fiscal consequences of Social Security benefits growing much faster than program income; and Larry Diamond shares his vision of a future US foreign policy that once again prioritizes the advancement of democracy and the promotion of freedom.
Revitalizing History
At The Washington Post, Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin reviews The Death of Trotsky, a new book by Josh Ireland. Kotkin finds that the work “begins inauspiciously with a false quote from Stalin (‘Death solves all problems. No man, no problem’), one of innumerable Stalin ‘sayings’ that originate in novels and course through the history books upon which Ireland’s narrative draws.” However, the eminent Stalin biographer finds that when Ireland turns to “the assassination plot itself, the assassins’ personalities, and the murky world of Stalin’s secret police, or NKVD,” the latter’s “book acquires narrative force and allure.” Kotkin emphasizes how the beliefs of Trotsky and his communist associates guided their lives toward “moral squalor.” Trotsky “not only enacted terror-massacres but also argued for them on moral grounds,” Kotkin says. As “young Americans seem increasingly attracted to communism,” Kotkin suggests that “a fresh look at Trotsky” as both “perpetrator and victim of Soviet communism” could remind current generations why that project “imploded in ignominy decades ago.” Read more here. [Subscription required.]
Freedom Frequency
Where has the Social Security trust fund gone? In a new Plot Points analysis in Freedom Frequency, Daniel Heil and Tom Church look into the upcoming insolvency of the trust fund and show that this money wasn’t “stolen,” as many taxpayers believe. Instead, insolvency means every dollar ever credited to the trust fund will have been paid out in benefits by the early 2030s. This is why Social Security is already straining the federal budget even while it’s still officially solvent. The projected insolvency will force a reckoning when the year 2034 rolls around, Church and Heil warn: Benefits must be cut under current law unless some other solution (tax increases or benefit reforms) comes along. Read more here.
US Foreign Policy
In an essay for NOTUS, Senior Fellow Larry Diamond explains why the US should promote democracy through its foreign policy, and how the nation can do so better in the future. “The notion that America stands for something—other than naked mercantilism and territorial aggrandizement—has been a crucial element in our economic success and geopolitical security since World War II,” Diamond argues. He illustrates many reasons why “Americans and many of their leaders are not, in short, ready to give up on democracy promotion,” including the value of economic and scientific collaborations with other democracies and the persistent threats to US interests by autocratic and nondemocratic states. Diamond says the US can help provide the populations of authoritarian states with “authentic information, helpful analysis, democratic ideas and hope.” Diamond closes by reminding readers of President Ronald Reagan’s inspiring statement in London in 1982 that Americans are a “free people, worthy of freedom, and determined not only to remain so but to help others gain their freedom as well.” Read more here.
Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity
“Cybersecurity is becoming a contest between AI systems used by attackers and their targets,” writes Distinguished Visiting Fellow Anne Neuberger at The Wall Street Journal. “The decisive factor is which side has richer data and better models and can act at machine speed.” Neuberger, noting that the US government is the largest purchaser of information technology systems, argues that federal authorities should make defensive AI security vetting a requirement of any public-sector software purchase. Warning that network security providers are “in an arms race” and that reliance upon “human-speed defense against machine-speed attacks” will result in American cyber losses, Neuberger concludes, “We must build a network of continuously learning, secure defensive agents that can detect, reason and react faster than any human.” Read more here. [Subscription required.]
California Policy & Politics
On the latest episode of Matters of Policy & Politics, Hoover Senior Fellow Lee Ohanian and Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen, both contributors to Hoover’s California on Your Mind online journal, discuss the latest in the Golden State, including how Governor Gavin Newsom’s autobiography squares with his governance record, and the prospects of Los Angeles joining the ranks of cities ruled by “democratic socialism.” Ohanian and Whalen examine Newsom’s two trips to Europe already this year, plus his nationwide tour promoting his new memoir and his presidential prospects. Ohanian and Whalen also discuss a late-breaking plot twist in an already contentious Los Angeles mayoral race, as well as calls for the chair of LA’s 2028 Summer Olympics to resign over his ties to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. Watch or listen here.
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