Today, David Leal explains why making it harder to vote in federal elections won’t necessarily have the effect that both supporters and opponents believe it will; a new essay at Freedom Frequency makes the case for pursuing a democratic transition in Cuba; and Matt Turpin outlines a plan of action for Western nations opposed to Chinese trade practices in the wake of last week’s Trump-Xi summit that yielded no major breakthroughs in the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship.
Politics, Institutions, and Public Opinion
In an op-ed at The Hill, Senior Fellow David L. Leal argues that “politicians have fiddled with electoral rules in the hope of changing election outcomes” across American political history, and continue to do so today under the mistaken belief that such structural rule changes might give to their party a durable electoral advantage. “The current version of this long-running debate,” Leal says, “is centered on the Republican’s SAVE America Act, which would require, among other provisions, proof of citizenship to vote.” But the scholar maintains that both major US parties misunderstand the demographic bases of their support and hold mistaken assumptions about how voting rule changes may impact voter behavior. Given the “changing nature of class support for the parties” and other sociological shifts, Leal concludes that “Republicans should be skeptical that making voting harder will pay dividends for them.” Read more here.
Cuba and US Foreign Policy
Now more than 60 years old, the Cuban regime is deeply vulnerable, with its economy in tatters and its people suffering blackouts, food shortages, and a crumbling health care system. Democracy activist Rosa María Payá, whose father was a prominent opposition leader in Cuba until his death at the state’s hands, argues that the time has never been more opportune for democratic change on the island. In this essay at Freedom Frequency, contributor Carolyn Kennedy explains Payá’s proposal for a campaign of maximum economic pressure led by Western democracies, recognition of a viable democratic alternative, and direct support for Cubans working for freedom both abroad and in Cuba. Kennedy quotes Payá on the point that the economic crisis, though the most severe ever, is not a new catastrophe: “The humanitarian crisis in Cuba has been there for decades. . . . The only way to overcome this crisis is to get rid of the dictatorship.” Read more here.
US-China Summit
In his weekly China Articles newsletter, Visiting Fellow Matt Turpin agrees that the summit last week between Xi Jinping and President Trump “could have been an email” and says that by now, “it should be obvious to everyone that no ‘grand bargain’ between Washington and Beijing is possible, particularly one that addresses the underlying harms caused by the PRC’s economic structure.” The veteran China policy observer argues, “Trump gave it his best shot and now we should pursue another approach.” Turpin outlines a number of major steps Western nations should take now, including the institution of “managed trade” policies with the goal of reducing import dependency on the PRC over time. He also argues that “countries that want to form a fair and reciprocal trading system should withdraw from the [World Trade Organization]” given China’s refusal to help implement “reforms that are necessary for a functioning trade body.” Read more here.
California Policy and Politics
“People want to live in California, but the government is making it increasingly impossible for them to afford to do so,” Policy Fellow Jon Hartley argues in an op-ed at The California Post. Hartley says the revised budget presented in Sacramento by Governor Newsom last week “gives little hope to an improved outlook for the finances of the Golden State.” While state lawmakers quibble over whether to cap Medi-Cal enrollment for immigrants, both legal and undocumented, Hartley argues that the state’s largest fiscal challenge—underfunded pension liabilities—is compounding: “The sheer scale of unfunded pension liabilities alone represents a ticking time bomb that no amount of temporary spending freezes can solve,” the economist writes. Hartley also says that California’s budget woes could worsen if the AI sector concentrated in the state experiences a downturn. Read more here.
Artificial Intelligence
Senior Fellow Andrew B. Hall asks in a new essay whether contemporary fears regarding the mass displacement of human workers from the economy by artificial intelligence point to a genuine new threat—or whether they echo similar fears from past periods of technological transformation that did not come to pass. In 1964, Hall recounts, a group of scientists “feared that no one would need to work due to automation, and that this would create a political crisis,” leading them to recommend measures “to bring about the conditions in which men and women no longer needed to produce goods and services may find their way to a variety of self-fulfilling and socially useful occupations.” Hall recognizes an “almost eerie” similarity in this history to current discussions taking place in AI labs. But, as Hall notes, “the experts were SUPER wrong in 1964.” He asks readers to consider: Are things truly different today? Read more here.
On the latest episode of EconTalk, British writer Aled Maclean-Jones speaks with Visiting Fellow Russ Roberts about the role of physical skill in a world increasingly reliant on digital systems for knowledge work. Drawing from the Mission Impossible film series, Maclean-Jones argues that dangling from cargo planes, soldering hard drives, and skydiving 19 consecutive times (as star Tom Cruise did in production) is really an extended tribute to embodied knowledge. Guest and host analyze the unique concept of embodied competence presented in Cruise's films. Along the way, they cover London cabbies who refuse to use Waze, a fatal dive at the sound barrier, solo sailing around the globe, and the small triumph of fixing a broken toilet by oneself. They conclude by exploring the possibility that physical mastery may come to matter more as computers increasingly take over the work of the mind. Watch or listen here.
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