Today, Andrew Hall explores how James Madison’s ideas about constitutional constraints on power can be applied to governance of AI systems; Frank Dikötter explains the qualities and strategies that allowed early communists in China to take over the entire country; and Lee Ohanian unpacks the surprising reasons why two Republicans could plausibly end up on the ballot this November in California’s gubernatorial race.
Freedom Frequency
At Freedom Frequency, Senior Fellow Andrew B. Hall argues that even though the transformational power of artificial intelligence is barely grasped today, one thing is already clear: The wielding of any sort of power must always be subject to the restraints of a free society. Such “self-enforcing bargains,” says Hall, trace back to the formation of the United States, when James Madison stressed the principle that even a good government must itself be governed. Today, Hall says, that means the good intentions, manifestos, and constitutions proclaimed by powerful players in artificial intelligence are insufficient. Making the best use of revolutionary technology means setting up clear and independent monitoring, Hall maintains, as well as crafting enforceable standards and protections for the vulnerable. He calls for “structures that harness new capabilities while making the abuse of power costly enough to deter.” Read more here.
Confronting and Competing with China
At Reason, Senior Fellow Frank Dikötter shares an excerpt from his new history book, Red Dawn Over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) today exercises a vice-like grip on control of narratives about its own history, and that of its erstwhile rivals, yet Dikötter explains how he has been able to construct a more objective account of how communism came to power in China, drawing from surviving records. Dikötter argues that the communists succeeded in part because “the [CCP], not least their chairman, became more determined than their opponents in carrying out unrestricted warfare, devoid of any rules.” As he concludes, the CCP “excelled in a very traditional pursuit of power, prevailing over their opponents through the amoral application of military strategy, including every ancient tactic prescribed by Sun Tzu and the other great strategists of the past: feign, lie, deceive, retreat, hit, run, sabotage; view everything as a means to achieving the end.” Read more here.
California Governor’s Race
In California’s gubernatorial race, “The two candidates receiving the most primary votes will advance to the November general election, irrespective of party,” writes Senior Fellow Lee Ohanian at California on Your Mind. Because “disappointment has become sufficiently deep” toward the slate of Democratic candidates seeking the state’s highest office, Ohanian says, “two Republican candidates, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, are among the top three in polls, with only about three months to go before the June primary.” This means two Republicans might end up on the ballot in November. “If this happens,” Ohanian argues, “it will be because the Democratic Party has grossly failed to deliver on what Californians have been asking for: affordability and quality in publicly provided goods and services.” The piece goes on to review the challenges that various Democratic candidates are having in breaking out of their currently low levels of support amid a crowded field. Read more here.
Answering Challenges to Advanced Economies
“If fiscal reliance on a narrow tax base is the problem, the solution is not to deepen that reliance through additional taxes on the same few hundred households,” argue Senior Fellow Joshua Rauh and Research Fellow Benjamin Jaros in an article at the Liberty Lens Substack. Because of the volatile nature of capital income, the authors write, “increasing taxes on that same narrow group would deepen fiscal reliance on the most cyclical and fragile components of the tax base, increasing rather than reducing revenue instability.” Rauh and Jaros cite research suggesting the “top 400 [wealthiest individuals’] effective tax-and-giving rates could exceed 70%.” They conclude, “If the concern is tax base stability, the conversation should be about the structure of government revenue and the uses of that revenue, not about whether billionaires pay enough.” Read more here.
USA @ 250
The Hoover Institution opened its yearlong commemoration of the United States’ 250th anniversary with a discussion on how Enlightenment arguments and varied classical influences shaped the United States at its founding, and how those ideas still drive today’s debates on issues of freedom and citizenship. Hoover Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin set the tone at “Ideas That Made US: Dialogues on Freedom,” hosted by Hoover on February 11, with broad questions about national purpose and civic responsibility. “We are here with you to talk about America,” Kotkin said. “Where do we come from? Where are we going? What is freedom? How do we advance freedom?” Kotkin framed the anniversary as a chance to examine traditions that stretch back before the birth of the republic and to acknowledge that Americans still argue about what those traditions mean. The event also featured Research Fellow Jonathan Gienapp, Stanford History Professor Caroline Winterer, Senior Fellow Dan Edelstein, and Stanford History Professor Anne Twitty. Read more here.
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