Today, Hoover scholars apply their expertise to analysis of the ongoing war in Iran. Victor Davis Hanson examines the history that led to the current conflict; Michael McFaul questions the administration’s war aims and justifications for ongoing strikes; and Jacquelyn Schneider argues that the campaign is offering a crucial test case for the “American way of war.” Additionally, Hoover invites those in the Bay area to an event next week on how AI will impact productivity and the economy.
War in Iran
In an essay published at his Blade of Perseus site, Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson traces the history of Iran’s foreign relations with the US and its allies—a history that has now culminated in open warfare. Hanson notes that successive American and Israeli governments failed to fully grasp “that beneath its rough, ugly shell, theocratic Iran was rotten and decayed inside.” The military historian anticipates that “remnants of the theocracy intend to ride out the bombings and, at some point in extremis, expect an armistice from ‘negotiations.’” Hanson suggests that if allowed to endure beyond this war, the reigning Iranian regime will continue to serve as a Russian and Chinese proxy, and will continue to pursue nuclear weapons with the aim of using them against Israel. Read more here.
Writing at his Substack, Senior Fellow Michael McFaul examines the multiple rationales that have been offered by President Trump and other administration officials for the ongoing military campaign against Iran. “War must always be a last resort to achieve American aims after all other instruments have been exhausted,” McFaul writes, questioning whether avenging Iranian terror attacks from prior decades addresses “‘imminent threats’ to the United States today.” McFaul concludes that the war will not end until the president decides to end it; emphasizing that this decision may or may not accompany the accomplishment of articulated war aims including regime change, the cessation of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, or the destruction of Iran’s conventional military. Read more here.
At the Financial Times, Hoover Fellow Jacquelyn Schneider argues that the current US campaign “of precise long-range strikes against a weak Iranian regime is what social scientists call an ‘ideal’ case to test the US vision of warfare.” Schneider says the “American way of war is long-range, precise and depends on overwhelming domination.” It is founded on an assumption that high-quality technology and highly trained personnel “can achieve victory with limited risk to American lives.” Schneider makes the case that the success or failure of Operation Epic Fury will have long-lasting implications for US military strategy and weapons procurement. As she concludes, “How this all ends will shape Iran and the region, but it will also dictate the future of the American military.” Read more here.
State and Local Government Regulation
A new Hoover Institution Press essay by Reeve T. Bull, director of the Virginia Office of Regulatory Management, and Research Fellow Patrick McLaughlin outlines how Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin transformed the commonwealth’s regulatory system into a national prototype through a focus on transparency, rigid oversight, and assertive streamlining. The essay explains how the efforts of the newly created Office of Regulatory Management contributed to the elimination or simplification of more than 88,000 requirements and 12 million words of guidance, saving Virginia over $1.2 billion without hurting the public good. The authors explain how the use of artificial intelligence allowed for efficient analysis and identification of outdated regulations, ensuring that the reform process was data driven and cost-effective. Bull and McLaughlin conclude that other state policymakers around the country can boost their state's economies by cutting regulatory red tape. Read more here.
Artificial Intelligence
The Hoover Institution invites you to attend Productivity Gains and Labor Pains: What Will AI Do to Jobs? on Tuesday, March 17, 5:00-7:00 pm PDT in Hoover’s Hauck Auditorium. This timely and thought-provoking discussion will consider how AI is reshaping the workplace and what leaders need to do in response. Speakers will include Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Rishi Sunak, former Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and top economics researchers from LinkedIn and Anthropic. Learn more and register here.
Arms Control
President Trump has announced that the United States will resume testing of nuclear weapons, but this policy change is full of uncertainties, argue Visiting Fellow James Timbie and Distinguished Visiting Fellow James O. Ellis Jr. at Defining Ideas. There are hints that both Russia and China have carried out tests that would violate the commitments of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which all three nations have signed but not ratified. Yet there has been no indication that the United States, which has not conducted a nuclear test since 1992, needs to resume testing for any technical reasons, Timbie and Ellis write. They point out that a robust system already exists to make sure the American nuclear arsenal is safe, secure, and effective—without requiring explosive tests. One way to head off revived nuclear proliferation, the authors suggest, would be to introduce transparency into the superpowers’ experiments. Timbie and Ellis conclude that this approach might also satisfy the White House’s demand for reciprocity. Read more here.
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