Abstract: This paper explores the distributional effects of lowering Medicare’s eligibility age to 60. Medicare at 60 is a seemingly simple change, but would significantly affect medical providers, the newly eligible, the federal budget, and the nation’s health care system. We find that lowering the Medicare eligibility age to 60 would add $42.6 billion to the federal deficit in 2023 and increase 10-year deficits by as much as $452 billion. Payments for inpatient hospital services in 2042 would fall by $21 billion and revenue for physician and other providers services would fall by $35.5 billion (in real 2022 dollars). Meanwhile, Medicare at 60 would benefit some new enrollees, but not all would be better off. Specifically, we find that over one-third of ACA marketplace enrollees would see their combined premium and out-of-pocket payments rise under the proposal.
Read the paper: The Distributional Effects of Medicare at 60
