- Security & Defense
- Arms Control
- Determining America's Role in the World
This paper outlines the choices for the United States response in the aftermath of the expiration of the New START Treaty and the rise of China as a formidable nuclear player, within the context of the second Trump administration. This work advocates for US policymakers to pursue a more creative nuclear agenda that could ultimately support a more predictable and secure level of international peace and security.
Key Takeaways
- The United States is about to enter a significant transition when it comes to its nuclear deterrence and strategic stability strategy.
- The conventional wisdom has been that a minimalist agenda of confidence-building measures, risk reduction, improved communications, and improvements around the edges is the most attainable outcome as the world contemplates the immediate future.
- It appears that China is transitioning from minimum deterrence to something else, but it has not yet presented any official rationale or goals for its current activities. Chinese doctrine on the subject also has not changed. How this concern translates into future US nuclear weapons levels will be a key decision for any US administration.
- The United States has long had a different nuclear deterrence relationship with Russia from that it has had with China, due to the great disparity in the sizes of their nuclear forces and the lack of arms control agreements with China. It is time to modernize and make consistent these relationships.
Nuclear Arms Control in the First Year of the Second Trump Administration by Hoover Institution
Cite this essay:
Edward Ifft and James E. Goodby, “Nuclear Arms Control in the First Year of the Second Trump Administration,” Essays of the Nuclear Security Dialogues series, Hoover Institution, Global Policy and Strategy Initiative, January 2026.
