What post-debate polling suggests about the effectiveness of the candidates’ messaging and how the tragedy in El Paso factors into national politics.

Conventional wisdom about presidential campaign strategy changed around the turn of the current century. Traditionally, candidates were advised to move to the center in the general election campaign after catering to the party bases in the primaries. Not anymore. George W. Bush’s two presidential campaigns exemplify the shift.

[Subscription Required] Why can’t lawmakers in Washington compromise on immigration? Conventional wisdom blames President Trump’s political base, with its uncompromising hostility toward immigrants. That turns out to be nonsense.

With the returns in and the presidency decided, we discuss  why the polls didn’t get it right in 2016.