Today, Niall Ferguson explains why this weekend’s strikes against Iran—and the larger operation they signal the start of—differ from the US invasion of Iraq in 2003; Michael McFaul joins Peter Robinson on Uncommon Knowledge to discuss the state of America’s geopolitical competition with its authoritarian rivals; and Amy Zegart warns of the risks of allowing artificial intelligence companies or their leaders to exercise a nondemocratic veto on US government uses of advanced AI systems, even if that veto is wrapped in ethical arguments.
US Foreign Policy
At The Free Press, Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson says that despite critics’ claims regarding the similarities between US strikes against Iran this weekend and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the latest operation has little in common with its historical predecessor. “We don’t yet know” if the operation will succeed in its aim of ending the international military threat posed by the Iranian regime, Ferguson argues. “But it’s important to note that the Iranian regime has few effective friends,” he says. Still, Ferguson acknowledges the possibility of the country’s descending into internal disarray or even civil war, if competing factions headed by surviving regime figures struggle for power. Ferguson concludes by noting the risk this action may pose “beyond the Middle East.” The United States “has to deal with the whole world—not just the Western Hemisphere and not just [the Middle East and North Africa],” he writes. Ferguson concludes that the US must remain willing and able to defend its interests, and that of its allies and partners, in Europe as well as in East Asia. Read more here. [Subscription required.]
Click here to view today’s full Hoover Daily Report, which features links to numerous interviews with Hoover Fellows over the weekend discussing the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
On the latest Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson, Senior Fellow Michael McFaul returns to discuss his new book, Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder. McFaul explains why Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and today’s autocratic leaders fundamentally do not think like we do—and why a failure to understand that has shaped some of America’s most consequential foreign policy mistakes. Drawing on decades of scholarship and firsthand experience inside the Kremlin, McFaul traces Russia’s post–Cold War slide back into autocracy, challenges the claim that NATO expansion caused the rupture with Moscow, and argues that the true threat to authoritarian regimes is democratic example rather than Western military power. McFaul also examines the war in Ukraine, its implications for Taiwan, the limits of transactional diplomacy with ideologues like Putin, and the enduring lessons of Cold War statecraft. The conversation closes with McFaul reflecting on his unlikely journey from Butte, Montana, to Spaso House —the Moscow home of the US ambassador to Russia— and why he remains convinced that democracy, however fragile, is still the West’s greatest strategic advantage. Watch or listen here.
Freedom Frequency
Anthropic and the Pentagon are clashing over the use of the company’s AI models, with the company positioning itself as the guardian of AI ethics. But in an essay for Freedom Frequency, Senior Fellow Amy Zegart points out the company’s resistance to letting the military use its AI for certain categories of classified work is misguided. Serious safeguards that should satisfy Anthropic’s stated concerns already exist, Zegart says. She also notes that news reports tend to overlook two profound dangers: that America’s military could be deprived of a vital tool to keep the country safe, and that a sole supplier could exercise a veto over the use of a product it was paid to provide. AI-enhanced military systems are already transforming security and defense, Zegart stresses. The eminent intelligence scholar concludes that ethical values for the use of artificial intelligence need to be shaped by the nation, not imposed by individual companies or their leaders. Read more here.
Iranian censors have long imposed internet blackouts to keep their people scattered and in the dark about the regime and the outside world. Now an innovative nonprofit has developed technological systems that connect Iranians via the satellite dishes many already have, Shokufeh Mahini reports in Liberty Amplified. These digital “knapsacks,” reminiscent of the morale-boosting supplies dropped into Soviet-held areas during the Berlin Airlift, are actually a software packet that allows Iranians to collect encrypted news, entertainment, and information. This lifeline to the outside world supports Iranians in their continuing resistance to autocracy and dispels the illusion that the regime remains in control, Mahini writes. Read more here.
Psychology and Personal Development
Introverts are underrated, argues author and founder of the introvert-focused Quiet Movement Susan Cain. This week on EconTalk, Visiting Fellow Russ Roberts speaks with Cain about her book, Quiet. She explains why introversion isn’t the same thing as shyness and speaks of the many benefits of solitude and silent contemplation. Host and guest also discuss why modern schools’ and workplaces’ obsession with extroversion is problematic, and the reasons for the shift from a culture of character to our current culture of personality. Cain concludes by sharing how writing Quiet has changed her own life and helped other introverts navigate a world that can’t seem to stop talking. Watch or listen here.
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