Today, authors warn the Trump administration not to accept a simmering, low-level standoff with Iran like America did with Iraq between 1991 and 2003. The GoodFellows invite you to attend a live episode taping later this month. And the Reflections series explores how the Hoover Afghanistan Research & Relief Team (HART) came to be in 2021.
Iran
In Foreign Affairs, Visiting Fellow Samuel Helfont and Daniel Chardell warn against approaching peace with Iran the way US presidents did with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq after the success of Operation Desert Storm. Both George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton sought to “contain” Iraq, with no-fly zones, sanctions, and diplomatic pressure. “Trying to contain Iran, as the United States did to Iraq in the 1990s, will inexorably lead to repeated confrontations that tie up American forces and harm the international economy, eroding what little international support remains for U.S. policy in the region,” the authors write. Instead, they say, the Trump administration should be prepared “to take yes for an answer” from Tehran and accept a deal that offers diplomatic and economic normalization in exchange for Iran’s denuclearization, limiting its missile program, and ending support for its proxies. Read more here. [Subscription required.]
GoodFellows
The Hoover Institution invites you to join us for a special in-person taping of GoodFellows the evening of Wednesday, April 22, at Hoover’s Hauck Auditorium. Economist John Cochrane, historian Niall Ferguson, and geopolitical strategist and scholar H.R. McMaster will be joined by moderator Bill Whalen to explore why the US Constitution remains one of the most consequential frameworks ever devised for governing a nation. This live taping brings the GoodFellows conversation from the studio to the public stage, offering a rare opportunity to experience the show in person. We’ll also have limited-edition GoodFellows merchandise available on site for purchase (via credit or debit card only!). During the registration process, you can submit a question for the GoodFellows that may be discussed during a portion of the event. Learn more and register here.
Revitalizing History
In the latest video released for the Reflections series, Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster discusses the origins and evolution of the Hoover Afghanistan Research & Relief Team (HART), established in the wake of the chaotic US military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, when the Taliban regained power. McMaster describes how a program that began as an emergency initiative to support and fill gaps in the US government’s efforts to evacuate refugees transitioned to collect and preserve historical materials on the war in Afghanistan, including oral histories, at the Hoover Institution Library & Archives. Watch the episode here.
China
On the latest episode of China Considered, Senior Fellow Elizabeth Economy speaks with Nadia Schadlow, former deputy national security advisor for strategy in the first Trump administration and author of the influential 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS). Schadlow reflects on how the NSS was built around the accelerating great-power competition with China and America's four core national security interests: protecting the homeland and way of life; promoting American prosperity; preserving peace through strength; and advancing American influence. The conversation moves through key differences between the first and second Trump administrations, including process, tone, and the role of ideology in foreign policy, before turning to a substantive debate about the limits of multilateral institutions and Schadlow's argument in a recent Foreign Affairs essay that state-centric approaches can outperform global governance frameworks. Watch or listen to the episode here.
In a new edition of China Considered Quick Takes, Elizabeth Economy evaluates how China is using observations of the US-Israeli war against Iran to inform its own assessment of future challenges posed by the United States. While China has publicly condemned US and Israeli strikes and reaffirmed its ties to Iran, Economy shows that the more important story lies behind the scenes, where Chinese analysts are debating what the conflict means for American credibility, military power, and the broader strategic balance. She argues that the war is being read in Beijing through several competing lenses: as evidence of US strategic overreach, as a reminder of enduring American military superiority, and as a test of how instability affects China’s own interests. Watch the video here.
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