Hoover Daily Report
Hoover Daily Report

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Can Diplomacy Still Work with China?

Today, Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice speaks about why continued diplomacy and engagement may generate positive results with the People’s Republic of China. Amit Seru breaks down the dynamics of the US-India relationship in recent history. Joshua D. Rauh, Daniel Heil, and Benjamin Jaros continue to explore issues with scoring the costs of new federal legislation. And Mickey D. Levy previews how the Trump administration’s nominee to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors may fare in Congress.

Confronting and Competing with China

Chinese Tech Dominance Aims Demand New US Effort at Diplomacy: Rice

Speaking with Senior Fellow and Doerr School of Sustainability Dean Arun Majumdar at last month’s Asian American Scholar Forum hosted at Stanford, Hoover Institution Director Condoleezza Rice said the US needs to return to a diplomatic approach when dealing with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). She says only through continued dialogue can the US and China turn their grievances into “interest overlaps” that move the relationship forward. Her comments come as the NSF Secure Analytics program, a Hoover collaboration, releases its first report, which shows that the PRC is now treating technological development as a “battlefield” where the main adversary is the United States. Read more here.

Determining America’s Role in the World

There’s a Reason the US and India Aren’t Better Friends (subscription required)

In The Washington Post, Senior Fellow Amit Seru, who co-leads the Hoover Program on the Foundations of Economic Prosperity, writes about the many reasons why India and the US don’t have closer ties. Since the thaw in the 2000s that came with the US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement, relations have vacillated between India’s concern about US-Pakistan ties and America’s consternation about India’s continued purchase of Russian military equipment. Today, that US concern has now moved to Indian purchases of Russian oil. Seru argues too much of the US’s approach to India involves coercion rather than partnership. India is too valuable to the US, in terms of the migration of high-skilled talent and its growing size as a trading partner, for this to be the case. “India needs a partner that respects its autonomy and invests in its rise. The U.S. needs an ally that shares its long-term interests and democratic DNA,” Seru writes. “That partner is waiting in New Delhi, but not forever.” Read more here.

The Economy

Hubris in Scorekeeping: Why Confidence Needs a Calibration

In their latest entry on the Liberty Lens Substack, fellows Joshua D. Rauh, Daniel Heil, and Benjamin Jaros continue to evaluate what they call shortcomings in the way the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) evaluates the cost of legislation as well as how it and other entities forecast economic growth. The CBO has a record of projecting future economic growth below what is actually realized, as they did after the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, partly in the interests of being prudent and conservative. But the trio says part of the problem is that government forecasters do not always employ sensitivity analyses, and their initial reports also contain epistemic humility, but their final published findings do not. Read more here.

Levy: Trump Nominee to Fed Board Will Face Hurdles in Congress

Speaking with Kathleen Hays on her Substack, Visiting Fellow Mickey D. Levy says Stephen Miran, the Trump administration’s nominee to join the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, will face significant pushback from Congress because of his unique role in setting the president’s global trade policy. “There are going to be some tough, tough questions to ask from both sides of the political aisle. Republicans as well as Democrats disagree with Trump’s tariffs,” Levy says. They also discuss proposals Miran has made to reform the Fed, including a provision Miran advanced that would allow the president to fire any Fed governor at any time. Watch their conversation here.

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