Today, H.R. McMaster discusses Israel’s war against Iran and its implications for American foreign policy with national news anchors; Zohar Palti outlines the strategic objectives Israel hopes to accomplish with its strike campaign; and a special episode of Matters of Policy & Politics engages pollsters in a conversation about what worked and what didn’t in the 2024 election, and how the political landscape may shift headed into the next presidential campaign.
Conflict in the Middle East
Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster joined America’s Newsroom on Fox News to analyze America’s position in the Israel-Iran conflict. McMaster notes the importance of thinking ahead to anticipate the second- and third-order effects of any potential strike. The former national security advisor also recounts the astonishing scope and success of the Israeli campaign against the Iranian “nuclear supply chain.” Considering how Iran may respond to ongoing strikes, McMaster acknowledges the possibility of militia groups attacking US forces in the middle east. At the same time, McMaster maintains that Iran’s proxy forces are largely spent, and the regime itself is in “survival mode.” He concludes that the Trump administration and Israel must carefully weigh their goals for the campaign and commends President Trump’s rejection of Russia’s attempt to “mediate” the conflict. McMaster also discussed the war in Iran on CBS News and CNN. Watch here.
Writing in a forum for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Zohar Palti outlines the objectives and significance of Israel’s ongoing military strikes in Iran. In Palti’s view, “The objective of Israel’s campaign is twofold: to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and to permanently alter the regime’s behavior in the region.” Palti, a former head of the Mossad intelligence directorate, further notes that “Iran has not experienced aerial bombardment since the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988.” Combined with the fact that Israel achieved air superiority over Iran in two days, Palti suggests that Iran’s military underperformance has presented a “profound shock to the regime and its public.” Read more here.
Revitalizing American Institutions
While last year’s US presidential election didn’t lack for historical quirks—an incumbent president dropping out of the race soon before his party’s convention; for only the second time, a former president returned to office—opinions differ as to the campaign’s long-term effect on America’s political landscape. In a special edition of Matters of Policy & Politics hosted by Hoover Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen, a bipartisan slate of leading pollsters comment on the state of America’s two political parties. They provide perspectives on the 2024 election, including assessments of what did and did not work in terms of messaging, how voting blocs shifted, and whether Democrats can rebrand and rebound by 2028 to take on anti-woke Republicans once again. The pollsters also assess the chances of Trump-style politics outlasting its term-limited namesake. This episode is presented in partnership with the Center for Revitalizing American Institutions. Watch or listen here.
Determining America’s Role in the World
For Hoover’s Military History in the News column, Visiting Fellow Miles Maochun Yu explains the important differences between China’s “One China Principle” and the United States’ “One China Policy.” As Yu stresses, “Beijing’s One-China Principle is a sweeping, uncompromising assertion: there is only one China, Taiwan is an inseparable part of it, and the PRC alone has the right to rule over all of it.” Conversely, “the United States’ One-China Policy is a model of deliberate ambiguity and principled restraint.” Yu says that Beijing aims to erase the differences between the two similar-sounding ideas as part of a global disinformation campaign “to portray any recognition of Taiwan’s autonomy as ‘separatism,’ to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, and to paint the United States and other democratic nations as reckless saboteurs of peace.” Read more here.
State and Local Governance
Writing at California on Your Mind, Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen surveys the aftermath of California Senator Alex Padilla’s forcible removal last week from a Los Angeles news conference by federal Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. The episode quickly became one of Padilla’s highest-profile moments in his time in the Senate thus far, Whalen argues, partly because, in terms of legislative accomplishment, “Padilla is mostly missing in action.” Other events quickly surpassed Padilla’s arrest in LA, leading Whalen to ponder whether California’s governor understands the lesson that glory and the political spotlight are transitory. Applying this political wisdom to the governor’s presidential ambitions and continued California policy disappointments, Whalen concludes by asking, “Can Newsom’s ‘moment’ translate to momentum, locally, not nationally?” Read more here.
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