Today, the Hoover Institution congratulates Kevin Warsh on his confirmation to serve as the next chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Andrew Hall examines the likely political implications of AI-driven job displacement; and H.R. McMaster speaks with a human rights advocate about the dire humanitarian situation in Cuba and the prospects for a change in governance that could improve conditions for the Cuban people.
Fellows in Public Service
The Hoover Institution congratulates Kevin Warsh, the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at Hoover, on his confirmation by the US Senate to serve as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "I have known Kevin for most of his adult life. I first met him as a student in my international politics class at Stanford University, and it was clear even then that he was exceptional,” said former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Tad and Dianne Taube Director of the Hoover Institution. “Kevin is uniquely suited to lead the Federal Reserve at this moment. He is battle-tested, principled, and brings the breadth of judgment this role demands. Just as important, he understands how deeply international relations and monetary policy are intertwined—a reality that will only grow more consequential in the years ahead. He is the right person at the right time. On behalf of his friends and colleagues at the Hoover Institution, we wish him well." In a bipartisan vote on Wednesday, the US Senate confirmed Warsh, who will become the Fed’s 17th chair when he is sworn in.
See how Hoover mentors helped to prepare Warsh for this position.
Artificial Intelligence and Politics
In a major new essay for the Free Systems Substack, Senior Fellow Andrew B. Hall considers the political implications of an artificial intelligence–driven economic shock. Hall says this future has not yet arrived, and is difficult to forecast, but will likely feature rapid economic growth “even as jobs disappear,” making the situation “more like the Industrial Revolution or the China Shock than a normal recession, with mass disruption alongside the explosive enrichment of a small class of elites at the top.” Hall predicts that backlash will arrive when unemployment climbs by 2 percentage points alongside a clear public narrative blaming AI. Hall also makes the case that frontier AI labs can’t preempt the political backlash through the implementation of their own social contracts, however ambitious in scope or clever in design. “Social contracts tend to get extracted from the powerful by the affected,” Hall writes, “not handed down from above to a public that has not yet decided what it wants.”
What the rise of AI means for the US economy and American politics.
Cuba
For the latest episode of Today’s Battlegrounds, Rosa María Payá, founder of Cuba Decide and a commissioner on the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, speaks with Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster about US-Cuba relations, Cuba’s deepening economic and humanitarian crisis, its internal challenges of governance and repression, and prospects for a more peaceful and secure future for the Cuban people. Reflecting on the current crisis in Cuba, Payá and McMaster discuss worsening humanitarian conditions, including blackouts, food and medicine shortages, and mass emigration. They examine the legacy of Payá’s father, Oswaldo Payá, and democratic opposition movements such as the Varela Project; the Cuban regime’s use of repression and surveillance to maintain power; and the role of young Cubans demanding political change. The conversation also explores US policy toward Cuba; the effects of sanctions and international pressure; Cuba’s relationships with authoritarian regimes including Venezuela, Russia, China, and Iran; and the conditions Payá argues are vital for a democratic transition in Cuba.
What the situation in Cuba means for the Cuban people and US foreign policy.
Confronting and Competing with China
Writing for Project Syndicate, Hoover Fellow Eyck Freymann considers how Taiwan will figure in this week’s Beijing summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Freymann argues that in the decades ahead, China’s leadership is likely to increase “gray-zone activity”—below the threshold of armed conflict but detrimental to Taiwan’s independence. He notes that in Xi Jinping, “Trump will be facing a patient, perceptive, and ambitious leader.” The best way to signal American resolve on Taiwan and to deter a crisis, Freymann says, “is to ensure Xi never receives the signal that patience is no longer required—and that Taiwan never doubts who its friends are.”
How the Trump administration can best support Taiwan at the negotiating table. [Subscription or registration required.]
US-Mexico Relations
The US and Mexico can strengthen ties by deepening automotive supply chains and developing shared energy infrastructure, but better dialogue between both governments and coordination in security issues may be necessary to advance with further integration, speakers said at a Hoover Institution conference. The April 20 gathering was made possible by Hoover’s Program on the Foundations of Economic Prosperity, which together with Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) has formed the Mexico-USA Prosperity and Security Initiative. Annual US-Mexico trade totals roughly $850 billion, with about 80 percent of Mexican exports going to the United States. Participants argued that bilateral trade has delivered tangible gains over the past several decades, even as disputes have persisted in some areas.
How scholars see deeper trade ties benefiting both Mexico and the US.
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