Abstract: This paper analyzes the budget effects of lowering Medicare’s eligibility age to 60. We find that if the newly eligible population is subject to the same rules as current Medicare recipients, nearly 14 million 60- to 64-year-olds would enroll in Medicare Part A, about 8 million would enroll in Part B, and 6.5 million would enroll in Part D. Gross Medicare expenditures would rise by $82.9 billion in 2022. Net Medicare outlays (after accounting for Part B and D premiums) would total $69.8 billion. These outlays would be partially offset by reductions in federal outlays for Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, and military health care programs. The federal deficit would rise by $32.2 billion in 2022 and $393.9 billion over the next 10 years (2022 to 2031). Absent alternative financing mechanisms, the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund would be depleted in 2024, two years sooner than currently projected.
Read the paper: The Fiscal Costs of Medicare at 60.pdf
