In this week’s edition, General Minihan predicts war with China in a leaked memo, Iran responds to an Israeli drone attack, a district judge rules against the FTC in a case against Meta, and the Biden administration considers tighter export controls against Huawei. Additionally, researchers look to CRISPR to protect crops and the founders of Instagram launch a new Twitter competitor designed to limit misinformation.
Industrial Policy & International Security
US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions | The Guardian
A leaked memo authored by General Mike Minihan, head of US Air Mobility Command, predicted that the US will be at war with China in 2025. Minihan cited rising tensions between US and China, escalatory behavior in the Taiwan Strait, and his gut as the reasons behind his prediction. The Pentagon has distanced itself from Minihan’s position and analysts have criticized the memo as an unevidenced ploy to boost military budgets. But Minihan is not alone. In 2021, then head of US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson predicted that the Chinese threat to Taiwan would “manifest” by 2027. Similarly, US Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gilday estimated a 2022-2023 timeline. The memo raised questions about whether or not US civilian policymakers and senior military officials see eye-to-eye with regards to China and a potential invasion of Taiwan.
Iran Threatens Response to Israeli Drone Attack | The Wall Street Journal
In a letter to the United Nations Secretary-General, Iran’s ambassador to the UN publicly blamed Israel for a January drone attack on a military facility in Isfahan. Ambassador Iravani claims that Israel made an attempt “to launch a terrorist attack against a workshop complex of the Iranian Defense Ministry…using three Micro Aerial Vehicles” and that early investigations suggest Israel was responsible. Iravani asserted that Iran reserves the right to defend its national security and respond with whatever means necessary, as per international law and the UN Charter. Reports suggest that Israel's intelligence agency carried out a precision strike on the site. Satellite images show minor damage to the facility, yet the attack has been described as successful. In his letter, Iravani also referred to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's statements acknowledging actions against Iran's nuclear program, claiming that “Israel has frequently threatened Iran and engaged in acts of terrorism and sabotage against Iran's peaceful nuclear facilities, officials, scientists, and civilians.”
US Regulation
Meta Wins Court Nod to Buy Virtual Reality Startup in Loss for Khan’s FTC | Bloomberg
This week, US District Judge Edward Davila in San Jose, California, denied the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) request to block Meta’s proposed acquisition of virtual reality (VR) startup Within Unlimited. The FTC sued Meta in July claiming the deal would aid the company in dominating the VR industry. This ruling marks the first significant defeat for FTC Chair Lina Khan, who was appointed by President Biden to bolster antitrust enforcement. The FTC has one week to appeal the ruling before Meta will be permitted to close on the transaction. They must also decide whether to proceed with an in-house trial before the FCT’s administrative judge, which is scheduled to begin on February 13th. A similar challenge to Microsoft's proposed $69 billion acquisition of gaming company Activision Blizzard will go to trial in August.
Biden Administration Considers Cutting Off Huawei From U.S. Suppliers | The Wall Street Journal
The Biden administration is considering cutting off Huawei Technologies from US suppliers over national security concerns. Since 2019, Huawei has been on the Department of Commerce’s Entity List, which identifies foreign companies seen as a threat to national security. Special licenses allowed some US companies to sell to Huawei so long as there were no national security risks. While no decision has been made, tighter export controls would eliminate these licenses. And the Biden administration may ban exports not only to Huawei but also to other companies and intermediaries that supply Huawei. If implemented, this policy could limit Huawei's dealings beyond US technology companies. Experts predict the US-China relationship may deteriorate further if an outright ban on exports to Huawei is put into place.
Innovation
How CRISPR could help save crops from devastation caused by pests | MIT Technology Review
Adding CRISPR to the pest-control toolkit is expected to reduce the use of insecticides and provide an alternative to genetic modification of crops. Researchers are exploring how the gene-editing technology can be leveraged to change the genome of the glassy-winged sharpshooter—an invasive insect in California—so that it can no longer spread the bacterium causing Pierce's Disease. Although the state has managed to control the spread of the sharpshooter, the disease still has no cure and is at risk of getting worse due to climate change. Another California researcher is seeking to use CRISPR against pests including the spotted wing drosophila, which spoils $500 million in US fruit crops annually. However, the use of gene-edited organisms remains controversial and they have not yet been approved for widespread release in the US. Despite this, scientists believe that CRISPR technology has opened a new era of genetic control in agriculture and more discoveries are expected.
Cyber
Russia-Ukraine war has improves US cyber cooperation, says key official | The Hill
Nathaniel Fick, ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy, recently stated that the Russia-Ukraine war has strengthened public-private partnerships. In prior years, cybersecurity collaboration often meant one-way information sharing but the war instigated a change. Fick cited the efforts of Microsoft and companies in Ukraine which worked with the US intelligence community to counter Russian cyberattacks in real time. The US government has also increased its assistance to Ukraine and other Eastern European countries to improve their cyber defenses against Russia. Fick brings past experience leading tech and cybersecurity firms to his government service. During his confirmation hearing, he emphasized the importance of building a culture that values digital expertise within his bureau and the entire Department of State.
State & Local Tech Ecosystems
Why Corporate Venture Capital is Changing -VC Mike Edelhart | Forbes
Mike Edelhart, Managing Partner at Ataraxia and Joyance Partners and Social Starts, discussed the evolution of corporate venture capital (CVC) with Forbes editor, Diane Brady. Edelhart notes that many large companies have invested in new ventures through their internal CVCs with mixed results. To improve, he believes that CVCs need to think beyond company strategy and focus on early-stage investment opportunities. London Business School professor Gary Dushnitsky asserts that corporate venture funding could drive pockets of growth in riskier areas and influence venture investment trends. And with political polarization undermining wider progress on environment, social, and governance-focused investment, the private sector has an opportunity to take the lead in principled innovation. Edelhart argues that corporate firms that don’t already have a CVC arm should consider creating one now, as venture capital funding declines and there is less competition for key deals.
Democracy Online
Instagram founders launch Artifact to rival Twitter and tackle misinformation | Financial Times
The co-founders of Instagram, Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger, have launched a new news app called Artifact. The app aggregates news and lifestyle articles and uses artificial intelligence to avoid "filter bubbles" by presenting content that may challenge previously held views. The founders believe Artifact has the potential to compete with Twitter as a source for news and lifestyle articles. The San Francisco-based company is self-funded with just seven employees. By working with approved sources and occasionally delivering content that may challenge users’ beliefs, Systrom and Krieger hope to limit bias and misinformation on Artifact. The company may display personal advertising or offer paid options in the future. Systrom believes Artifact seems to be riding a wave of text-based language models in Silicon Valley that feels similar to the central role high-quality phone cameras played in the founding of Instagram.
