Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Today, Niall Ferguson writes about what he thinks might come next in the conflict among Iran, Israel, and now the United States. Victor Davis Hanson argues the air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities worked to keep Iran from continuing to pursue nuclear weapons and may spell the end of the regime as a whole. Mike Steadman interviews an entrepreneur working to better educate the ordinary person about using generative AI. And John H. Cochrane explores recent worries about threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence.

Determining America’s Role in the World

What Comes Next After Trump’s “Surgical Strikes”? 

In The Free Press, Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson wonders what comes next for Iran’s nuclear ambitions after Trump’s order to bomb Iran’s enrichment facilities. He writes that while the strikes have demonstrated America’s “peace through strength” doctrine is back, he is not confident the strikes have ended the Iranian regime’s desire for nuclear weapons. “As Kissinger often said, every success in foreign policy is just an admission ticket to the next crisis,” he writes. But will that crisis involve regime change in Tehran? Or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz? Ferguson rates the prospect of regime change as likely to bring chaos, and a blockade of the strait as unlikely.

Read more here (subscription required).

Why Trump’s Iran Strike Worked

Also writing in The Free Press, Senior Fellow Victor Davis Hanson says those concerned that the Trump administration’s strike on Iran will lead to another Middle East quagmire are missing the facts. This time around, no one in the White House is calling for a ground invasion. Hanson argues that Trump’s desire to use military force is truly limited, as the president says, with the goal being to keep Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. America’s other major rivals, Russia and China, are in no position to oppose America’s use of force. In short, Hanson says the strikes succeeded in establishing deterrence. 

Read more here (subscription required).

Understanding the Impact of Technology on Economics and Governance

AI Literacy Is the New Literacy

On the latest episode of Frontline Voices, Veteran Fellow Mike Steadman speaks with Chris McKay, founder of Maginitive. McKay and Steadman discuss how generative AI is changing their lives and becoming more accessible to the masses. McKay’s firm works with tech companies and schools to educate people on digital technology and now “AI literacy,” building tools to make AI and related concepts more accessible, especially to underserved communities. McKay says much more must be done across society to prepare individuals for how to best use AI, and avoid falling prey to its many misuses.

Watch or listen to the episode here.

The Economy

Central Bank Independence

On his Substack, Senior Fellow John H. Cochrane argues that recent concerns about Federal Reserve independence may be slightly overblown. Despite recent disagreements between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Cochrane says that while independent, the Federal Reserve has always been somewhat responsive to the will of elected leaders and the people. “The Fed responds to politics,” Cochrane writes, “but slowly.” In the lead-up to the 2008 Financial Crisis and during the Biden presidency, Cochrane argues, the Fed did what Congress and the White House wanted, encouraging mortgage lending prior to the housing collapse and buying up debt from the Treasury and state and local governments during the COVID-19 crisis. He says, “We talk too much about the power of the President to influence or fire Fed officials” and not enough about whether the Fed’s tools and mandate should be expanded or curtailed.

Read more here.

Revitalizing History

Xi Jinping’s Costly Inheritance

Drawing from his new book, The Party’s Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping, Research Fellow Joseph Torigian writes in Foreign Affairs about the great suffering Zhongxun endured throughout his life, how it influenced his son, and whether his family’s story of suffering and struggle can resonate in modern China. He also focuses on Xi Jinping’s decision to so far not publicly name a successor, and how that decision might have been influenced by the experiences of his father, who witnessed the grave consequences of infighting when he worked for Mao during the Cultural Revolution.

Read more here (subscription required).