In today’s Report:
- Lanhee Chen criticizes Governor Gavin Newsom’s proposed partisan gerrymander of California’s congressional districts.
- Bill Whalen interviews Niall Ferguson about his rise from early setbacks in Scotland to global historical eminence and knighthood.
- And Elizabeth Economy speaks with Noah Barkin about Europe’s experience with the China challenge in trade and geopolitics.
California Politics and Policy
Writing at the Los Angeles Times opinion section, Research Fellow Lanhee J. Chen argues that California “Gov. Gavin Newsom’s political ambitions have reached a new low,” as Newsom and State Assembly Democrats plan “to counter Texas Republicans’ proposed partisan gerrymander” with a partisan gerrymander of their own. Chen stresses that in 2008 and 2010, “California voters explicitly placed the drawing of district lines in the hands of [an] independent citizens’ commission to take politicians out of the process,” making the Newsom redistricting proposal a contravention of “California law and the expressed will of the state’s voters.” Chen maintains that by “bending electoral rules in service of their own political interests, Newsom and California Democrats become no better than Abbott and Texas Republicans.” The good news, according to Chen, is that California voters will have the opportunity to reject the proposed gerrymander “at the ballot box this November.” Read more here.
Revitalizing History
How does a young Scotsman go from struggling actor and failed politician to internationally acclaimed (and knighted) historian? In a solo installment of GoodFellows, Sir Niall Ferguson, Hoover’s Milbank Family Senior Fellow, speaks with Distinguished Policy Fellow Bill Whalen about his academic journey, fellow historians he admires, and keys to successfully multi-tasking through life. Ferguson also shares how he and his spouse, Research Fellow Ayaan Hirsi Ali (who also appears in this episode), are raising their two sons. Also discussed: Sir Niall’s newfound passion for sailing, his non-Scottish attitude toward golf and fishing, why he doesn’t see retirement as a viable lifestyle, plus the pride he takes in a music legend recently lauding him as the “Jimi Hendrix” of his profession. Watch or listen here.
Confronting and Competing with China
For China Considered, Senior Fellow Elizabeth Economy interviews Noah Barkin, senior advisor with the Rhodium Group, about the evolving EU-China relationship following their July 2025 summit celebrating 50 years of diplomatic ties. Barkin traces Europe's awakening to the China challenge and China's designation as a "systemic rival" in 2019, explaining how the European Union has developed its own distinct approach to managing Chinese economic competition. The conversation explores why China's strategy of leveraging Trump-era US-Europe tensions to drive a wedge between allies has largely failed, with Europe maintaining its critical stance on issues like Chinese overcapacity and support for Russia. Drawing on his expertise from Berlin, Barkin offers insights into whether Europe can maintain unity on China policy and what tools the EU needs to address the growing economic and security challenges posed by Chinese behavior. Watch or listen here.
Sound policy decision making—especially in the US-China relationship—involves understanding risk: uncertainties and their consequences. Quantitative methods of risk analysis determine failure probabilities, providing a basis for rational risk management.
Quantitative probabilistic analysis requires factual analysis independent of personal biases, based on known scenarios and outcomes. A new report from the Hoover Program on the US, China, and the World by Stanford School of Engineering Professor Elisabeth Paté-Cornell provides a conceptual introduction to the topic for policy professionals using examples from surgical anesthesia, spacecraft heat shields, and AI-supported cyberattack warnings. The paper emphasizes that no scenario can be entirely without risk. Managing risk is therefore more important and realistic than avoiding risk. Read more here.
Answering Challenges to Advanced Economies
Writing at his Substack Environmental and Urban Economics, Visiting Fellow Matthew E. Kahn reacts to the news that Senior Fellow Casey B. Mulligan has been sworn in to the position of chief counsel for advocacy at the US Small Business Administration. “I have known Casey for almost 35 years now,” writes Kahn. “I predict that he will apply rigorous cost-benefit analysis to examining the rules and regulations that affect small businesses. He is an expert on the political economy of interest group competition, and he is always studying the unintended consequences of regulation and attempting to measure who gains from existing rules of the game . . . I am impressed with Casey’s willingness to serve his country, and I anticipate that he will do great work.” Kahn notes that he will be interested to see how Mulligan and his colleagues address “industries where small firms face major disadvantages due to existing rules and regulations.” Read more here.
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