Today, H.R. McMaster and Michael McFaul each offer their expert analyses of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland, as well as their perspectives on an effective American and NATO policy response; Niall Ferguson pushes back on the claim that America is currently sliding into dictatorship; and a new publication from Hoover’s Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy separates Social Security myths from facts.
Reminder: Hoover’s Thomas Sowell Essay Contest and Creator Competition close tonight at 11:59 p.m. Pacific Time. Learn more and enter here!
US Foreign Policy
Writing at his Substack, History We Don’t Know, Senior Fellow H.R. McMaster analyzes the implications of 19 Russian drones violating Polish airspace on September 10. He argues, “As NATO leaders formulate a response to Putin’s latest act of aggression against Poland, it should consider the drone incursion in context of the long history of Russian probing in Eastern Europe that predated the massive reinvasion of Ukraine in February of 2022.” McMaster cites numerous examples of Russian aggression in Europe in recent decades, including cyberattacks and interference with maritime navigation in international waters. McMaster concludes that increasing the costs of Russian attacks via tightened sanctions and additional support for Ukraine will be the only way to deter worse aggression in the future. Read more here.
Also responding to the recent Russian drone incursion into Poland, Senior Fellow Michael McFaul argues that the incident “constitutes a serious escalation of conflict between Russia and NATO.” He suggests the “Russian dictator was testing the alliance of democracies to see if NATO countries would respond in a unified manner.” In McFaul’s view, the Trump administration’s response failed to address the severity of the Russian attack or to sufficiently convey NATO unity. The former US ambassador to Russia argues that, with current policy, “Trump is not deterring Putin” but could do so with sanctions on the “shadow fleet” that covertly exports Russian oil and with greater US military assistance to Ukraine. In his view these measures “could reverse Putin’s perception of American weakness.” Read more here.
Politics, Institutions, and Public Opinion
In his column at The Times (UK), Senior Fellow Niall Ferguson writes that the “killing of Charlie Kirk on Wednesday unquestionably turns the heat up further under American democracy.” Ferguson notes the prevalence of claims of rising fascism and authoritarianism in the US and how those have fostered an atmosphere of fear and mistrust across party lines. But after reviewing the bloody history of 20th-century fascism, the historian insists, “The United States today is a very long way from Italy in 1927 or Germany in 1938.” While acknowledging the need to remain vigilant to real expansions of government power at the expense of civil liberties, Ferguson concludes, “Many in the 2020s . . . are emotionally overinvested in the idea of an American descent into fascism” and do not adequately appreciate the enduring “American love of liberty.” Read more here.
Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy
A new fact sheet from Hoover’s Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy examines popular myths about Social Security and outlines key information that Americans should know about the program. For example, many believe that Social Security pays retirees back using the funds they paid into the program over their career. In fact, “Workers’ payroll taxes are spent right away on today’s retirees, and the money received each year is now less than the required benefits paid to retirees.” The fact sheet also notes that unless the program is reformed soon, beginning in 2033 benefits may be cut by about 23%, or payroll taxes would need to be raised to maintain current benefit levels. Additionally, the fact sheet highlights how Social Security recipients must have worked and paid taxes for 40 financial quarters to qualify for benefits. Read more here.
Answering Challenges to Advanced Economies
“There is no defensible reason why the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the two institutions that effectively referee Washington’s budget debates, keep their economic models under lock and key,” argue Senior Fellow Joshua D. Rauh and Policy Fellow Jonathan Hartley in a new essay for Civitas Outlook. “The estimates of these agencies shape legislation that governs our lives, yet the underlying assumptions remain secret.” Rauh and Hartley argue that this lack of transparency undermines public trust in America’s budgetary scorekeeping institutions, which influence “trillion-dollar decisions.” Because models simplify reality, “Budget scoring will never be perfect. . . . But perfection is not the goal. The goal is trust.” The piece makes the case that publishing scoring models, documenting key assumptions, and inviting public scrutiny of budget forecasts would increase trust and “elevate the conversation” around the necessary trade-offs in policy formulation. Read more here.
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