Today, Elizabeth Economy and Amy Zegart discuss the impact of DeepSeek’s new powerful large language models, apparently developed at a fraction of the cost of US competitors. Andrew Roberts asks what the new seismic shift will be in the nature of modern warfare. Soner Cagaptay explores Turkey’s new doctrine of drone diplomacy. And Paul Peterson asks what the rookie upstart Republican Party of the 1850s and ’60s can tell us about prospects for Elon Musk’s new third party.
Confronting and Competing with China
On the latest episode of China Considered, senior fellows Elizabeth Economy and Amy Zegart discuss DeepSeek AI, the “Sputnik moment” it created when its new models appeared to match more costly American ones in performance earlier this year, and Zegart’s own work tracing the educational backgrounds of the firm’s array of researchers. The fellows explore the strategic implications of open versus closed AI models, arguing that the US should embrace more open research approaches rather than closed models. They highlight how China is successfully replicating America's historical innovation model—investing heavily in long-term basic science—while the US has reduced federal R&D spending. Watch or listen to the episode here.
Modern Warfare
Writing in the latest issue of Strategika, Distinguished Visiting Fellow Andrew Roberts compares multiple conflicts in history, exploring times when one adversary has had to adapt to the tactics and new technologies of their opponent, from the advent of Napoleon’s corps system to the introduction of tanks to the front in World War I. Looking to today, where the rapid introduction and improvement of drone technology in Ukraine is overlaid with a ground war that resembles the trench conflict of a century ago, Roberts asks what may happen if the next major conflict starts in space. He writes that if the axis of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea move to disable Western communication satellites, the result would be disastrous. Read more here.
Also in the latest issue of Strategika, Soner Cagaptay writes about Turkey’s use of “drone diplomacy,” fueled by the export of its popular and affordable Bayraktar TB2 strike drone, which the Turks have supplied to Poland, Ukraine, Albania, Qatar, Iraq and many other countries. Though TB2s lack the high-end capabilities of American attack drones, they cost only a fraction of those systems. Cagaptay says drone exports have helped Turkey adjust its foreign policy away from “go-it-alone unilateralism” and to “transform its international profile” and become an indispensable partner to friendly states in NATO, Africa, and the wider Middle East. Read more here.
Revitalizing American Institutions
On his Modern Federalist Substack, Senior Fellow Paul E. Peterson looks to Lincoln when considering whether billionaire Elon Musk’s announcement of a new third party in US politics might get off the ground. Peterson points out that when Abraham Lincoln secured the presidency in 1860, he represented what was then a third party, the Republicans. In fact, in that election, there were four party-like structures vying for power: the former Whigs, calling themselves the Constitutional Union Party, under John Bell; the southern Democrats, with John Breckenridge; the northern Democrats, under Stephen Douglas; and the Republicans, with Lincoln. Peterson asks if today’s political scene is ripe for another schism. For an answer, he asked his favorite AI application, HAL, which provided an extraordinary but plausible scenario. Read more here.
Health Care
Writing in the Journal of American Medicine, Hoover Fellow Lanhee J. Chen argues that California’s Office of Health Care Affordability (OHCA) is doing more to reduce the quality of care or stability of the healthcare workforce in the state than it is doing to manage costs. He cites OHCA’s move to single out seven hospitals in the state it considers “high-cost” and push them to achieve lower spending growth rates over the next four years in comparison with the rest of the hospital system. Also, the way OHCA determines costs in hospitals does not take into account the outpatient services a hospital offers, nor does it include inpatient services that are later reimbursed by government programs. Overall, he says, the pressure to keep spending growth down at some California hospitals may push the sector to shed more than 10,000 jobs by 2029, impacting the quality of care. Read more here.
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