This Friday, John Cochrane argues that true central bank independence should mean a narrow focus on price stability and employment; Andrew Roberts speaks with Frank Dikötter about the dark psychological dynamics and structural weaknesses within modern dictatorships; and Rose Gottemoeller highlights an opportunity for the United States and Russia to take joint measures to ban the use of nuclear-armed drones.
Revitalizing History
On the latest episode of Secrets of Statecraft, Senior Fellow Frank Dikötter, author of How to Be a Dictator: The Cult of Personality in the Twentieth Century, speaks with Distinguished Visiting Fellow Andrew Roberts about the dark psychology behind absolute power. From Hitler and Mao to Putin and Xi Jinping, Dikötter reveals how dictators use fear, lies, and the cult of personality to control not just people’s actions, but their thoughts. The conversation explores questions that come up time and again in historical studies of authoritarian leaders: Why do tyrants crave loyalty more than love? Why do they all end up surrounded by liars? And what happens when a dictator starts believing his own propaganda? Drawing on his scholarship and experiences living and teaching in Hong Kong, Frank Dikötter gives a fascinating look at how modern dictatorships are built—and why they always collapse from within. Watch or listen here.
Arms Control
Research Fellow Rose Gottemoeller argues in a new column at the Financial Times that the United States and Russia have an opportunity to lead the way in banning the use of nuclear weapons on drones. As Gottemoeller points out, adding nuclear capabilities to advanced drone systems poses unique risks for “warheads straying outside their closed security system and falling into the wrong hands.” The former arms control negotiator says that returning to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which lapsed in 2019, would be a good place to start. “A ban on such [short and intermediate-range] missiles is a difficult problem,” Gottemoeller writes, “but it is one that can be negotiated,” possibly by allowing states carveouts for designated and time-limited deployments of covered technologies. Gottemoeller concludes, “Banning nuclear weapons on drones, whether they are shorter- and intermediate-range missiles, should be a goal that every nuclear state can embrace.” Read more here. [Subscription required.]
Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy
A new short video from Hoover’s Tennenbaum Program for Fact-Based Policy asks: Where do the protections for expression guaranteed by the First Amendment end? While it's true that this constitutional stipulation protects Americans from government censorship and speech-related punishment, such protection stops where the free market and civil society begin. As the video highlights, American free speech protections do not preclude private parties, such as individuals, businesses, or private institutions, from instituting speech restrictions within their own private property. This allows private limitations on free expression, such as workplace or school dress codes, to comply fully with all US laws, including the foundational protections afforded by the First Amendment. As the video points out, the freedom to express ideas and opinions does not protect the speaker from facing nongovernmental consequences for their speech. Watch here.
Allied Security & Defense
Postdoctoral Fellow Jonathan Roll argues in a new Hoover History Lab policy brief that Israel’s most recent war has brought the schism between the country’s majority groups and its ultra-Orthodox minority over military conscription back to the surface. Roll traces the decades-long history of Israel’s conscription policies, showing how a gesture of goodwill made by Israel’s first prime minister has unintentionally led to the exemption of tens of thousands of young men—nearly 20 percent of some age cohorts—from military service today, when their service is most needed. Roll maintains that the situation has become unsustainable, given Israel’s ongoing security challenges and the growing demand for equality among its population segments. Roll concludes that any viable solution for Israel’s conscription crisis will require gradual implementation and must address broader elements of the complex relations among Israel’s majority groups, the Israeli state, religious institutions, and the ultra-Orthodox minority. Read more here.
Freedom Frequency
Central Bank Independence
Senior Fellow John H. Cochrane argues that Federal Reserve independence is not an absolute virtue but a limited one that must coexist with accountability. The Fed’s recent expansion into fiscal and political territory—through quantitative easing, bailouts, and climate-related policies—has blurred its mandate.
He explains that Fed independence should instead reflect a limited mandate of price stability and employment, adding that fiscal policy and the enactment of financial regulations are the province of politically accountable parts of government. He maintains however that independence alone won’t work, as the “Fed will not voluntarily abstain from intervening in a crisis just to contain moral hazard.” To curb the Fed’s tendency to intervene in markets, the financial system must be made more resilient, and the Fed should be legally barred from intervening without explicit authorization from Congress.
Read more here.
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