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The Ten Commandments of Foreign Policy

by George P. Shultzvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, April 30, 1997

Former Secretary of State and Hoover fellow George P. Shultz recently spent some time thinking over the advice he would give to President Clinton's new foreign policy team. What it all comes down to, he decided, is ten fundamental principles.

Tomb with a View

by Arnold Beichmanvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, April 30, 1997

Russia can never truly embrace democracy and free markets without repudiating its communist past-and it can never repudiate its communist past while a certain corpse remains on display. Why Russia should bury Lenin and all his works. By Hoover fellow Arnold Beichman.

Is There Hope for Africa?

by Larry Diamondvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, April 30, 1997

Fifty-three nations occupy the continent of Africa. Only two have remained democratic since achieving independence. Hoover fellow Larry Diamond surveys the changes that must take place if democracy is ever to supplant Africa's corrupt, authoritarian regimes.

A Complicated Peace

by William Ratliff, Edgardo Buscagliavia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, April 30, 1997

Late last year President Alvaro Arzu of Guatemala, the biggest country in Central America, signed a peace accord with guerrilla insurgents, ending the country's thirty-six-year civil war. How will Arzu bring economic growth to agricultural regions that don't even have clear land titles? Or political stability to a country in which 70 percent of the people see the legal system as a mere device of the white elite? Hoover fellows Edgardo Buscaglia Jr. and William Ratliff explain why negotiating the peace accord may have been the easy part

The Economic Consequences of the Fall of Two Empires

by Lewis H. Gannvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, April 30, 1997

Western Europe recovered from the Third Reich with astonishing speed. Yet Russia and much of Eastern Europe are now engaged in a long, slow struggle to recover from communism. What accounts for the difference? A final essay by the late Hoover fellow Lewis H. Gann.

No Nukes Is Bad Nukes

by Tom Bethellvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, April 30, 1997

Despite a growing nuclear threat from Third World countries and terrorist groups, the United States is getting rid of its own nuclear weapons as fast as it can. Hoover media fellow Tom Bethell reports on what amounts to unilateral disarmament.

The Next War (We Could Lose)

by Caspar W. Weinberger, Peter Schweizervia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, April 30, 1997

Engaging in one peacekeeping mission after another, the armed forces of the United States have grown ill-prepared to wage war. An analysis by former Secretary of Defense Caspar W. Weinberger and Hoover visiting fellow Peter Schweizer.

The New American Doctrine

by Christopher L. Shepherdvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, April 30, 1997

As the brass prepare for the coming Quadrennial Defense Review, "preventive defense" is taking the place of "containment." West Point grad and Hoover national security affairs fellow Lieutenant Colonel Christopher L. Shepherd explains the new doctrine.

An Assessment of Chinese Thinking on Trade Liberalization

by Jialin Zhangvia Analysis
Friday, April 18, 1997

An examination of recent theoretical and empirical research in China about that country's trade protection policies reveals that an increasing number of leading economists now favor the liberalization of the Chinese market economy and its closer integration with the world economy. Chinese policy toward foreign trade reveals greater domestic market openness. Not only has China deeply cut tariffs in recent years but it is committed to even greater cuts in the next few years to an average rate of 15 percent by the year 2000, a level maintained by most developing countries. Chinese policymakers, recognizing that greater foreign direct investment and imports mean acquiring foreign technology, are now eager to liberalize the regimes trading system and to reduce protection for those high-cost uncompetitive enterprises and industries.

Nuclear Blackmail: The 1994 U.S.–Democratic People's Republic of Korea Agreed Framework on North Korea's Nuclear Program

via Analysis
Tuesday, April 1, 1997

In 1993 the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) refused to let international inspectors see whether it had secretly separated plutonium for bombs. Subsequent negotiations led to a 1994 U.S.–DPRK Agreed Framework that stopped the North's plutonium production but at heavy political and financial cost. The 1994 agreement and its background are the subjects of this paper.

The United States will supply North Korea with two large nuclear power reactors worth more than $4 billion (mainly from South Korea and Japan) and a substantial fuel oil supply until the first power reactor begins to operate. North Korea has stopped running a small plutonium production reactor and constructing two larger ones. The disputed inspections were postponed until the United States supplied a substantial portion of the new reactors. The DPRK is supposed to have dismantled its indigenous facilities by the time both new reactors are completed.

The agreement leaves the United States subject to the continued threat of a restart of DPRK plutonium production. One way to limit this would be through "phased performance"--the progressive dismantling of DPRK facilities as the new reactors are built. Although the DPRK will object to starting to dismantle now, it will be in a stronger position to object when it has the new reactors.

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