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Liberty First

by Michael McFaulvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Why the stakes for George Bush’s “liberty doctrine” couldn’t be higher. By Michael McFaul.

Rumsfeld's War

How Iraq Was Won

by Bruce Berkowitzvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

The armchair generals were wrong and Donald Rumsfeld was right. Bruce Berkowitz on the new face of warfare.

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Democracy? In Iraq?

by Chappell Lawson, Strom C. Thackervia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

The short-term prospects for democracy in Iraq are mixed at best. Yet there are things we can do to improve the odds. By Hoover national fellows Chappell Lawson and Strom C. Thacker.

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Why El Jefe Cracked Down

by William Ratliffvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Fidel Castro may look like a blundering madman, but instead he’s calculating and entirely rational. Hoover fellow William Ratliff on a tyrant who “knows exactly what he is doing.”

Staying the Course

by Kenneth R. Timmermanvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Removing Saddam Hussein from power might turn out to have been a cakewalk compared to the challenge ahead—making Iraq democratic. By Kenneth R. Timmerman.

Party Affairs

The 10th National People's Congress and China's Leadership Transition

by Alice L. Millervia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

The 10th National People's Congress (NPC) completed the succession of China's top leaders that began with the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 16th Party Congress in fall 2002 and has preoccupied China's politics for more than a year. The NPC's appointment of new leaders to most top state posts has ended the suspense regarding the leadership transition, but it has not done much to clarify ambiguities about their power relative to each other. Nevertheless, initiatives by the new leadership under party General Secretary and now People's Republic of China (PRC) President Hu Jintao have made it clear that China's leaders do not intend a conservative, status quo approach to the country's political issues and policy problems, but rather have already embarked on a clearly activist agenda.

Military Affairs

Reduced Budgets, the "Two Centers," and Other Mysteries of the 2003 National People's Congress

by James Mulvenonvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

As explored in my submission to CLM 3, the National People's Congress (NPC) meetings, particularly the publicized People's Liberation Army (PLA) delegate discussion sessions, are a consistently useful barometer of the state of party-army relations. This article examines the makeup of the military delegation, outlines the issues highlighted in PLA leaders' speeches and delegates' comments, and analyzes the announced defense budget. Special attention is paid to an article in Liberation Army Daily by Wang Wenjie, particularly a cryptic comment made by a PLA delegate about the problems posed by "two centers," which some analysts took as a criticism of the divided leadership of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin.

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The Press Goes to War

by Jeffrey C. Blissvia Hoover Digest
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Embedding reporters in military units reduced the “cynicism, general distrust, and enmity” that had marked relations between the Pentagon and the press for three decades. Hoover associate director Jeffrey C. Bliss on the first new approach to relations between the military and the media since Vietnam.SIDEBAR: Journalists and War

Foreign Policy

PRC Foreign Relations after the National People's Congress: Iraq, North Korea, SARS, and Taiwan

by Thomas Christensenvia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

The National People's Congress (NPC) in mid-March produced all the major leadership outcomes predicted by experts on Chinese Communist Party (CCP) personnel issues: Hu Jintao, of course, became president of the People's Republic of China (PRC); Jiang Zemin maintained his powerful position as chair of the Central Military Commission (CMC); and, as long anticipated, Li Zhaoxing replaced Tang Jiaxuan as foreign minister. Tang was promoted to replace Qian Qichen in the role of party overseer of Chinese foreign policy, while trade negotiator Wu Yi will handle the trade portfolio and advise Tang. This lineup is exactly what was predicted by my interlocutors in Beijing in January. Although the NPC followed predicted paths, this outcome does not mean the event was unimportant to PRC foreign policy. On the contrary, China's behavior on the international stage has changed significantly since the NPC on two key issues for U.S.-China relations and China's role in the region: North Korea and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Although neither problem is close to being solved permanently, China adopted an about-face on both issues in the weeks after the NPC ended and the U.S.-led war in Iraq began. The military overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime in Baghdad and the passing of the NPC were, arguably, the two most important determinants of the new trends. Relations with Taiwan have been affected by Iraq, North Korea, SARS, and electoral politics in Taipei. Release of the anticipated "assessment" of cross-Strait relations—allegedly a road map for how to pursue gradually the development of direct air, shipping, and communications links (the "three links") across the Taiwan Strait—has been delayed by some combination of international and domestic factors relating to the March 2004 Taiwan presidential elections (for discussion of the assessment, see my entry in CLM 6).

The Provinces

Analysis of Current Provincial Leaders

by Cheng Livia China Leadership Monitor
Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Understanding the provincial leaders' biographical backgrounds, tenure in office, political socialization, career patterns, and rate of reshuffling is essential to the study of Chinese politics. This study focuses on the 412 current top provincial leaders, a cluster of elites that includes all current provincial party secretaries, governors (or mayors of provincial-level administrations in the cities), deputy provincial party secretaries, and vice governors or vice mayors. These people are the most important political leaders at the provincial level in present-day China. Data for this study are based principally on official Chinese information that has recently become available to the public on the Internet. I have constructed a database on the biographies of these 412 top provincial leaders. Each biography includes 76 entries, which are indexed into eight major categories for analytical purposes. These categories are: 1) basic biographical information, 2) status of membership and position, 3) promotion patterns, 4) regional background, 5) reshuffling experience, 6) work experience, 7) educational background, and 8) political association and networks. This report focuses on the first three categories.


Research Teams