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Analysis and Commentary

Casey Mulligan On Trump Versus Reagan On Trade

by David R. Hendersonvia EconLog
Thursday, August 8, 2019

This is the humorous part of a serious analysis by University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan, who just finished a one-year stint as chief economist with President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.


A Beautiful Model Now Questioned

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

A few days ago, an amazing thing happened when Thomas Brand (@thlbr) tweeted about a short article I posted on my blog My post was old–posted 10 years ago on October 3, 2009–and I titled it “A Beautiful Model, A Clear Prediction.”


Trade And The Fed

by John H. Cochranevia Grumpy Economist
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Nina Karnaukh of Ohio State sent along this lovely graph of the 6 month Fed Funds futures around the beginning of August. Read this as the market's guess about what is happening to the Federal Funds rate over the next 6 months.

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Socialism Has Failed. Period.

by David R. Hendersonvia Defining Ideas
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Two economists journey through Socialist lands—and tell us what they see. 


Modern Lessons From Adam Smith

interview with Russell Robertsvia Daily Economy
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Hoover Institution fellow Russ Roberts discusses Adam Smith, common economic misunderstandings, and the value of individual honor in western culture.


Central Bank Independence Is Not Enough

by John B. Taylorvia Economics One
Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Four former chairs of the Fed  wrote in the Wall Street Journal today about the importance of Fed independence. I agree, but their article should have emphasized that independence is not enough.  Economic performance has been affected by large shifts between more rules-based and less rules-based policy by the Fed without any concomitant change in the legal basis for independence. De jure independence has not prevented the Fed from harmful departures from rules-based policies.

In the News

‘Totally Unconstitutional.’ Trump Sues California Over New Law Targeting His Tax Returns

quoting John Yoovia The Sacramento Bee
Tuesday, August 6, 2019

California Gov. Gavin Newsom expresses support for Senate Bill 27, which would force presidential and gubernatorial candidates to release their tax returns to get their name on the state ballot. Trump's campaign believes the plan is unconstitutional.

In the News

Trump Administration Has Few Tools To Weaken The Dollar

quoting Michael D. Bordovia Financial Times
Tuesday, August 6, 2019

In early 2018, before an audience of chief executives and politicians at Davos, Steven Mnuchin got in trouble for saying the obvious: a weaker dollar would help US manufacturers export their products.

Observations From The Roundtable

Observations from the Roundtable: Emerging Technology and the U.S. Economy

via Governance In An Emerging New World
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Classical approaches can work. That was the message delivered by discussants at our roundtable on the interaction of emerging technologies with the domestic economy. Education, migration, and responsive regulatory policy were all offered as examples of policies that have worked before to help the United States economy take advantage of rapid changes while mitigating their disruptions. It's tempting to frame rapid technological change as an unprecedented challenge for this country, and one requiring unprecedented forms of governance. Similar arguments were, for example, to try to deal with the unexpected inflation of the early 1970s through "new methods" such as draconian economy-wide wage and price controls. Those failed spectacularly and sent the U.S. economy on a decade-long spiral. Our discussants therefore warned against throwing out orthodox policies for untried alternatives, as the result of doing so would be to replace one set of uncertainties—the complexity of the coming change itself—with two.


Economic Policy Working Group

The Working Group on Economic Policy brings together experts on economic and financial policy to study key developments in the U.S. and global economies, examine their interactions, and develop specific policy proposals.

Milton and Rose Friedman: An Uncommon Couple