Its models are unreliable, its policies erratic and its guidance confusing. It is also politically vulnerable.

There was more of the same-old, same-old California news recently. Some 62 percent of state roads have been rated poor or mediocre. There were more predications of huge cost overruns and yearly losses on high-speed rail—before the first mile of track has been laid. One-third of Bay Area residents were polled as hoping to leave the area soon.

In its recently released budget outlook, the Congressional Budget Office projects that this year’s federal deficit will increase by 35% from last year to $590 billion, and that the debt will rise from $14 trillion to $23 trillion by 2026, or from 77% to 86% of GDP. Clearly it’s time for a fiscal consolidation plan.

Even if a central banker is all you ever wanted to be, you’d have to think twice as you head for the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Wyoming later this week. After seven years of quantitative easing and inflation targeting, the Fed is riding an exhausted horse and seems to have no clear idea where to find a new mount.